February 9th, 2010

A majority of the Senate today voted to confirm Craig Becker, President Obama’s nominee to chair the NLRB, but they only won 52 to 33, so the motion was tabled.

Senator Orrin Hatch called on Obama not to use a recess appointment, saying that in light of the vote, such a move would “circumvent the will of the Senate.”

In other news, Hatch declared that War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and Ignorance is Strength.

He also called on Justice Clarence Thomas to resign pending another confirmation vote.

The Senate recesses in a few days.  President Obama, this is a test.

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February 9th, 2010

Anthem Blue Cross, California’s largest for-profit health insurer, wants to raise its rates by a staggering 39%.

That’s an outrage!  If California had adopted Republican tort reform plans then this wouldn’t have happened!

Oh, wait

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February 8th, 2010

Apparently, he and David Herszenhorn moonlight for the Republican National Committee, and got some of their copy mixed up.  Either that, or someone from the RNC spun them so hard they don’t know which way is up.

My God, where do you start?  Well, how about: “it is not clear that Republicans and the White House are willing to negotiate seriously with each other.”  Except, of course, that both the House and Senate plans are based on Republicans ideas, and the Senate process ground to a halt for months over the Gang of Six process.

Or this: “Congressional Republicans have laid out principles and alternatives that provide a road map to what a Republican health care bill would look like if they had the power to decide the outcome.”  Except that, you know, the Republicans had the power to decide the outcome for several years and did nothing because essentially the system is fine by them.

Or: “The Republicans rely more on the market and less on government.”  Unless, of course, you count things like tax sheltered health savings accounts, subsidies to Pharma under Medicare (dis)Advantage, federal pre-emption of state insurance regulations.

Or: ”it is clear that they would not provide coverage to anything like the number of people — more than 30 million — who would gain insurance under the Democrats’ proposals.  But Republicans say they can make incremental progress without the economic costs they contend the Democratic plans pose to the nation.”  Yes, but are they right when they say that?  Does such an assertion even pass the laugh test?  Given that both the House and Senate bills are fully paid for — a fact nowhere mentioned in the piece and not a facet of, say, any GOP policy initiative during the Bush years — maybe some analysis and fact-checking of GOP claims is warranted?

Or: “Republicans would provide federal money to states to establish and expand high-risk pools, for people with chronic illnesses who cannot find private insurance at an affordable price.”  Yes — and many states already have them, and they have done exactly nothing to increase affordability or access?

Or: ”Republicans also contend that changes in state medical malpractice laws could lower costs and slow the growth of premiums. However, some of these proposals — like federal limits on damages for pain and suffering and punitive damages — are potentially in conflict with the Republicans’ emphasis on federalism and state autonomy.” Also however — these proposals do virtually nothing to actually reduce costs, as has been shown by study after study for years and years.  (Which isn’t to say tort reform isn’t a good idea on it’s own basis).

Or: ”Many Republicans want to expand the role of private insurance companies in Medicare. Insurers already manage Medicare’s prescription drug benefit, and Republicans see that as a model.”  Yes — it’s a model of how to reward Big Pharma and getting nothing in return.  Can’t Pear and Herszenhorn be bothered to cite to the studies showing how inefficient it is?

This isn’t journalism: it’s stenography.  Pear has been on this beat at least since 1993, and apparently hasn’t learned anything since then: little wonder that his work served as Exhibit One in James Fallows’ diagnosis of what is wrong with contemporary reporting.

The piece concludes: “Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, the senior Republican on the Budget Committee, welcomed Mr. Obama’s invitation. But like many in his party, he expressed concern that the session would be used as ‘an arena for political theater.’”  Maybe that’s because theater seems to be the only thing that putative journalists like Pear and Herszenhorn understand.

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February 8th, 2010

The latest issue of The American Interest carries an essay I wrote called “The Outpatient Prison,” arguing that the combination of effective sanctioning (swift, sure, minimum-dose) for probation and parole violations and close monitoring of offenders’ drug use and location could provide a large fraction of the social control provided by prison at a tiny fraction of the cost in money and suffering.

Comments welcome.

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February 8th, 2010

We didn’t need this.

I was no fan of Murtha, but he was a reliable vote for Nancy Pellosi when it came down to it.  He represented a slightly conservative Pennsylvania district that went for McCain in 2008.  The odds are slim that his replacement — who will be chosen via a special election, will support health care reform.

And no, that’s not shallow: millions of people’s lives depend upon health care reform passing.

Pelosi has shown an amazing ability to get votes when she needs them.  She will have to be even more wizard-like now.

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February 8th, 2010

Steve Benen has it right. The basic fact about the failure of bipartisanship in Washington today is that Republicans won’t take “Yes” for an answer.  It’s not just health care, where there are currently zero Repubilican votes for a bill incorporating half-a-dozen Republican demands. Cap-and-trade, for example, is distinctly market-friendly approach to environmental regulation. The Republicans don’t want compromise. They want to destroy the President and the Democratic Party, and don’t mind at all destroying the country in the process – as they’ve already destroyed the State of California.

That’s the brilliance behind Obama’s challenge to a televised negotiating session. Of course the Republicans aren’t going to compromise, but he’s going to make them refuse to compromise in public.  As President, he has the power to force things onto the agenda, and he’s going to use it.

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February 8th, 2010

I’ll take “political catchphrases” for $200.

It’s a Latin word that translates into English as “Commander-in-Chief.”

Read the rest of this entry »

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February 7th, 2010

I’ve heard dogs snarling.
I’ve heard wolves snarling.
I’ve even heard bears snarling.

I’ve heard hens clucking.
I’ve heard hens chirping.
I’ve heard hens cackling.

But never before have I heard a hen … snarling.

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February 7th, 2010

A lot has been said about the motivation gap in the midterm elections: Republicans are much more likely to say they’ll vote in November than Democrats.  That’s true as far as it goes.  But it obscures the bigger pattern in ways that may make Democrats more scared than we should be.

Take the recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll (in which, by the way, Obama’s approval ratings are very good, and Democrats have regained the lead in the generic Congressional poll).  Look at the cross-tabs.

Lumping together people who say they will “Definitely” or “Probably” vote in November, 79% of Republicans are likely voters, against only 52% of Democrats.  That sounds dire.  But only 22 percent of the sample are self-identified Republicans; 31 percent are Democrats.  This multiplies out to a statistical (and substantive) dead heat.  If the election were held today on these assumptions, 17 percent of the electorate would be Republicans who turned out; 16 percent, Democrats who did.

In other words, the reason Republicans are more likely to be die-hard voters is that the only people who still identify as Republicans are the die-hards.  The motivation gap doesn’t necessarily represent a disillusioned Democratic base.  It represents the fact that the Democratic party, unlike the Republican, consists of more than its base.

Finally, Republicans are much more geographically concentrated than Democrats.  In the South, the Republican Party’s net favorables are at +34 (63-29).  But in no other region does the GOP do better than minus 44. The GOP could win the election in a walk in the one region where it still has supporters, and still not do that well overall.

This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t worry, and doesn’t mean that we don’t need to give partisan Democrats reasons to turn out (as well as looking out for Independents, who favor generic Democrats over Republicans by ten points, though “not sure” swamps both).  It does mean that there are no grounds for panic.  On current evidence, this will be a tough race—but no rout.  Time for some sangfroid.

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February 7th, 2010

I don’t watch the Sunday talk shows.  But did anyone ask anyone about the Shelby Shakedown?

Update Steve Benen reports that of the five shows, three ignored it, one brushed over it, and only Jake Tapper actually covered it:

PODESTA: But, you know, I come back to — to attack the FBI for their conduct in this case as the Republican leadership has done, I think is unconscionable.

By the end of the week, we had — we had Senator Shelby putting a hold on 70 nominees, including the head of the intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security, the head of intelligence at Department of State. I mean, what gives here? Are these people serious or are they just playing politics?

TAPPER: Well, and then that’s interesting, because all this debate, all this partisanship comes during a period, a two-week period, where President Obama is really hitting home the idea that there needs to be more bipartisanship. In fact, here’s the president speaking yesterday at the Democratic National Committee’s winter retreat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) OBAMA: I’m proud to be a Democrat. I’m proud to be a leader of this great party. But I also know that we can’t solve all of our problems alone. So we need to extend our hands to the other side. We’ve been working on them. Because if we’re going to change the ways of Washington, we’re going to have to change its tone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: So, Al, that speech came one day after the White House attacked Senator Shelby for the very thing John was just talking about. He had put blanket holds on all nominees because he was concerned, he says, about some national security issues. What’s going on here?

HUNT: Well, first of all, Senator Shelby is totally fraudulent on this to begin with. He was concerned about pork for his home state of Alabama. This is as bad as the Nebraska carve-out. It’s outrageous what he did. It’s, I think, an abuse of senatorial prerogative.

Neither George Will nor Peggy Noonan rose to Shelby’s defense, but neither one bothered to criticize him, either. We’re at war in two theaters, and neither the State Department nor the Department of Homeland Security has an intelligence chief because Richard Shelby wants some pork, and “conservatives” like Noonan and Will have nothing to say.

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