XXX-rated polling

The ABC News/WaPo poll has Obama up 53-43 among likely voters, 54-41 among registered voters. And it gets better from there.

Atrios has been talking about “poll porn”: numbers that send a tingle up your leg.

But the latest from ABC News.WaPo is flat-out hard core. [Yes it’s somewhat softened by the smallish sample size (1100 adults, 945 RVs, 765 LVs)]:

* Obama over McCain 53/43 among likely voters

* Obama over McCain 54/41 among registered voters

* 63% of Obama supporters enthusiastic; 29% of McCain supporters (down 18 points in a month)

* 15% of McCain voters say they might change their minds; 12% of Obama voters

* Favorable/unfavorable: Obama 64/33; McCain 52/45

* Bush approve/disapprove 23/73 (58% strongly disapprove)

* Wrong track 90%

* Party ID 39/30 Democratic

* Obama safe/risky 55/45; McCain safe/risky 50-50

* Obama even among men

* Obama carrying white non-evangelical Protestants (still getting croaked among evangelicals and losing white Catholics 41-54)

* Obama gets 81% of Clinton Democrats

* Obama better on every personal characteristic

So all the crap McCain throws against Obama from now on is in the teeth of a 24-point gap in net favorables. Bring it on.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com