Will Obama eat McCain’s lunch in New Hampshire?

If the independents catch Obamania, and the Republican primary is left to Republicans, it’s hard to see how McCain wins.

Other than Obama and Huckabee, John McCain is supposed to have been the big winner tonight; by seemingly hulling S.S. Romney below the waterline, Iowa’s voters opened the way for a McCain victory in New Hampshire.

Maybe.

NH is a semi-open-primary state, and McCain has an edge among independents. That’s his ace in the hole against Romney’s cash and name recognition. But after Obama’s performance, I’d expect Granite State independents to be flocking to his banner, not McCain’s. And if the Republican primary is left almost entirely to Republican voters, I’m not sure McCain can beat Romney.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com