Who does better in November?

Compared to McCain, Obama is up two points in net favorable/unfavorable; HRC is down thirteen points. Any other questions?

Kevin Drum had it right the first time. Horserace polling for November doesn’t mean much at this stage. But favorability/unfavorability matters.

CNN’s latest has McCain 54-29 (+25), Obama 55-28 (+27), and HRC at 53-39 (+14).

Now, given the choice between going in two points up on the opponent in net favorability or thirteen points down, which would I choose? Hmmmmmmm …. wait …. don’t rush me. This is a hard one.

Of course, by the time the Clinton machine gets done reminding voters that her black, naive, inexperienced black opponent with a Muslim middle name who went to a madrassa and now goes to a black church whose black pastor isn’t ashamed of being black and who used drugs and maybe dealt drugs like all the other black people shucking and jiving their way through life, maybe they’ll manage to so damage Obama that he, too, (being black and all) would have trouble beating McCain.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com