Charlie Cook doesn’t think things look good for GWB. Incumbents lose the undecided vote.

I hate to interfere with Mickey Kaus’s attempt to generate panic among Democrats at the prospect of having Kerry as the nominee, but here’s what Charlie Cook (who gets paid for being right rather than provocative) has to say:

This race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists.

[No link available, but you can sign up (free) to get Cook’s column emailed to you every week.]

Cook’s basic point: If the horse-race is close now, that’s bad news for the incumbent, because the undecideds are going to break against him.

Update: Ted at Crooked Timber has more. Note, however, that the betting markets have the race more or less even money.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

One thought on “Unpanic”

  1. What's Cooking?

    It's hard to tell sometimes, unless you can afford a pricey sub to the National Journal. This link, though (via Mark Kleiman- thanks!) will get you a free email copy of Charlie Cook's weekly column, and insights like this encouraging news…
    This ra…

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