Two points a day

The latest ARG tracking has Clark up another two points to, 18%; he’s gained a total of six points over three days. Dean is down a point, to 35%; he’s down a total of four. Kerry is also down a point, to 12, down a total of two, while Lieberman is up another point to 8.

Because the reported results are three-day moving averages, they have a little bit of momentum built in; Clark’s most recent day must have been even higher than 18%.

I have no idea what the Clark people are doing to make this happen, but whatever it is they ought to keep doing it.

Some of the pundits have been saying that Clark’s decision to skip Iowa will lock him out of news coverage for the next few weeks, because the focus will be on Iowa. In a world of daily tracking polls, that doesn’t seem right to me. And Kerry’s idea that the best way to pick up support in New Hampshire is to work hard in Iowa, trying for a strong third-place finish there, seems less and less plausible.

Second update A reader points out that Joseph Trippi has in the past boasted of maneuvers other people might have wanted to hide, and argues that any campaign he’s running shouldn’t get as much of the benefit of the doubt on “dirty tricks” charges as might otherwise be appropriate.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com