Todays’ polling numbers: “A two-man race”

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Dean 35 (even)

Clark 21 (+1)

Kerry 10 (-1)

Lieberman 8 (even)

Gephardt 4 (-1)

Edwards 3 (even)

Kucinich 2 (even)

Undecided 17 (+1)

Rasmussen national tracking

Dean 24

Clark 16

Lieberman 10

Gephardt 10

Kerry 9

Edwards 7

Moseley-Braun 4

Sharpton 3

Kucinich 1

Not Sure 16

Rasmussen’s analysis:

At the national level, the contest for the Democratic Presidential nomination is becoming a two-man race. While former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to lead the pack, General Wesley Clark is gaining ground and pulling away from the rest of the field.

[snip]

In the “Red States,” those carried by George W. Bush in the last election, the race is even tighter. Twenty percent (20%) of Red State Democrats prefer Dean while 19% prefer Clark. In the Blue States (carried by Gore), Dean leads Clark 28% to 13%.

Fox News

Dean 20

Clark 13

Lieberman 8

Kerry 7

Gephardt 7

Moseley Braun 4

Edwards 4

Kucinich 3

Sharpton 2

Other 5

Not sure 27

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 63.0-63.9

Clark 21.2-22.0

Gephardt 4.9- 5.4

Kerry 4.1- 4.4

Clinton 2.5- 2.7

Lieberman 0.7- 0.9

ROF 2.7- 3.1

Tradesports

Dean 64 66.5

Field 23.1-28.0 (includes Clark)

Gephardt; 2.5- 4.0

Clinton 2.7-2.9

Kerry 2.0- 3.9

Lieberman 1.4-2.0

Edwards 1.5-2.0

Kos, who follows this stuff more closely than I do, says that Dean and Kerry are taking a calculated risk by allowing Clark a free run in New Hampshire, hoping that good results in Iowa will focus media attention on them in the days jus before New Hampshire votes. That makes sense.

But he also says that Clark will find it hard to get free media in the days right after Iowa. That I’m less sure of. With all the polling pointing to a two-man race, it seems to me Clark will keep getting covered, and especially in New Hampshire.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com