Clark within 5 in NH, Kerry rising. Dean national lead over Clark steady at 2 points, 21-19. A four-way race in Iowa, with Kerry slipping ahead of Dean and Edwards moving up.
Jan 12-14
3-day moving average
Dean 29 (-3)
Clark 24 (+2)
Kerry 15 (+2)
Lieberman 7 (-2)
Edwards 5 (+2)
Gephardt 4 (even)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 15 (-1)
ARG comments that Dean has lost his soft support, and what’s left is a hard core of about 30%.
National Democrats
Jan 12-14
3-day moving average
Dean 21% (even)
Clark 19% (even)
Gephardt 11% (even)
Kerry 9% (even)
Edwards 8% (+1)
Lieberman 7% (-1)
Sharpton 5% (+3)
Mosely-Braun 3% (-2)
Kucinich 2% (+1)
Not Sure 16% (even)
Jan 12-14
3-day moving average
Kerry 22 (+1)
Dean 21 (-3)
Gephardt 21 (even)
Edwards 17 (+2)
Clark 3 (+1)
Lieberman 3 (+1)
Kucinich 2 (-1)
Mosley-Braun 1 (even)
Sharpton 1 (+1)
Undecided 11
Zogby comments:
Kerry leads among singles and college educated, but Dean is NOT in a free fall. Gephardt still has the organization, but do not count out Edwards, who leads in the Central part of the state and is running strong among college graduates.”
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Dean 50-51.8 (bid down 9.8)
Clark 22.4-23.7 (bid down 0.6)
Kerry 9.3-10.7 (up 5.6)
ROF (includes Edwards) 8.8- 9.9 (up 2.6)
Gephardt 3.6-4.8 (down 1.2)
Lieberman 1.5-1.9 (down 0.8)
Clinton 1.2-1.5 (up 0.2)
Dean 53-54.5 (bid down 8)
Field (includes Clark) 27.5-28.5 (bid up 5)
Edwards 4.1-5.0 (up 0.1)
Kerry 8-10 (up 3)
Clinton 2.6-3 (even)
Gephardt 3.1-4.0 (up 0.6)
Lieberman 0.8-1.6 (up 0.1)