Today’s numbers

Clark within 5 in NH, Kerry rising. Dean national lead over Clark steady at 2 points, 21-19. A four-way race in Iowa, with Kerry slipping ahead of Dean and Edwards moving up.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 12-14

3-day moving average

Dean 29 (-3)

Clark 24 (+2)

Kerry 15 (+2)

Lieberman 7 (-2)

Edwards 5 (+2)

Gephardt 4 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 15 (-1)

ARG comments that Dean has lost his soft support, and what’s left is a hard core of about 30%.

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Jan 12-14

3-day moving average

Dean 21% (even)

Clark 19% (even)

Gephardt 11% (even)

Kerry 9% (even)

Edwards 8% (+1)

Lieberman 7% (-1)

Sharpton 5% (+3)

Mosely-Braun 3% (-2)

Kucinich 2% (+1)

Not Sure 16% (even)

Zogby Iowa poll

Jan 12-14

3-day moving average

Kerry 22 (+1)

Dean 21 (-3)

Gephardt 21 (even)

Edwards 17 (+2)

Clark 3 (+1)

Lieberman 3 (+1)

Kucinich 2 (-1)

Mosley-Braun 1 (even)

Sharpton 1 (+1)

Undecided 11

Zogby comments:

Kerry leads among singles and college educated, but Dean is NOT in a free fall. Gephardt still has the organization, but do not count out Edwards, who leads in the Central part of the state and is running strong among college graduates.”

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 50-51.8 (bid down 9.8)

Clark 22.4-23.7 (bid down 0.6)

Kerry 9.3-10.7 (up 5.6)

ROF (includes Edwards) 8.8- 9.9 (up 2.6)

Gephardt 3.6-4.8 (down 1.2)

Lieberman 1.5-1.9 (down 0.8)

Clinton 1.2-1.5 (up 0.2)

Tradesports

Dean 53-54.5 (bid down 8)

Field (includes Clark) 27.5-28.5 (bid up 5)

Edwards 4.1-5.0 (up 0.1)

Kerry 8-10 (up 3)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 3.1-4.0 (up 0.6)

Lieberman 0.8-1.6 (up 0.1)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com