Today’s numbers: Wednesday

Anti-Kerry Democrats still split three ways. Betting markets like Kerry.

Rasmussen national Democrats:

Kerry 41%

Edwards 12%

Dean 10%

Clark 10%

Sharpton 2%

Kucinich 1%

Other 7%

Not Sure 17%

Tradesports nomination market:

Kerry 82.1-84.9

Edwards 10-13.8

Clinton 1.9-2.5

Field (includes Clark 1.6-4.4)

Dean 1.4-1.9

Iowa nomination market:

Kerry 84-84.8

Edwards 10.1-11

Clark 1.8-2

Dean 1.5-1.8

Clinton 1-1.4

Tradesports Bush re-elect:

66.3-67

Iowa vote-share market:

Kerry 41.8-44.3

Bush (v. Kerry) 42.1-43.8

[Note: These contracts are worth one cent for each percentage point of the two-party popular vote in November, if Kerry is the nominee, otherwise zero. So the ratio of Kerry to Bush v. Kerry is a predictor of Kerry’s vote share against Bush. When Dean was the leader, Bush had a substantial lead. Now Bush and Kerry are equally priced. That’s hard to reconcile with the Tradesports price making Bush the 2:1 favorite.]

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com