Today’s numbers: Wednesday

Polling and betting numbers agree: Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, in that order.

Bush down a little in the betting.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 18-20

3-day moving average

Dean 26 (-2)

Kerry 24 (+4)

Clark 18 (-1)

Edwards 9 (+1)

Lieberman 7 (even)

Kucinich 1 (-1)

Undecided 13 (even)

ARG comments:

While Howard Dean has a 2 percentage-point lead over John Kerry in the 3-day average, Kerry has a 1 percentage-point lead in the 2-day average (sample size of 508 likely Democratic primary voters) and Kerry has a 5 percentage-point lead in the one-day sample on January 20 (the sample size of 302 likely Democratic voters, theoretical margin of error ± 6 percentage points). Also, from January 19 to January 20, Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point and John Edwards is up 3 percentage points. There is no change for Joe Lieberman.

Rasmussen national tracking

Dean 20 (-2)

Kerry 18 (+5)

Clark 11 (-2)

Edwards 11 (+1)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Kucinich 4% (even)

Sharpton 2 (even)

Not Sure 19 (+4)

Rasmussen comments:

The impact of Iowa’s caucuses are clearly seen in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ tracking poll of the Democratic race. In a tracking survey conducted over the past three nights, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean retains a narrow 20% to 18% lead over Senator John Kerry. However, roughly half of the interviews in that survey were conducted before results from Iowa were released.

In the single night of tracking on Tuesday, the day after Iowa, Kerry leads Dean 25% to 15%. North Carolina Senator John Edwards is essentially even with Dean at 14% and retired General Wesley Clark is in fourth at 12%.

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 35.4-36.8 (bid up 1.5)

Dean 23.0-23.6 (bid down 2.9)

ROF (includes Edwards) 22.2-23.3 (down 1.2)

Clark 15-15.7 (down 1)

Clinton 1.5-1.8 (even)

Lieberman 1.3-1.5 (even)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 36.1-39.5 (bid up 18.5)

Dean 23-25 (bid down 24)

Edwards 20- 21.2 (up 11.5)

Field (includes Clark) 16.7-18.0 (down 2.6)

Clinton 2.5-3 (down 0.1)

Lieberman 1.8-3.80.6-1.8 (up 1)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 51-55 (Up 8)

Dean 27-32 (down 5)

Field (includes Clark) 10.1-12 (even)

Edwards 6-8 (down 2)

Tradesports Bush re-election

67.6-69.7 (bid down 2.9)

Contract high: 75, about a week ago.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact:

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