Today’s numbers: Tuesday

Kerry’s NH lead is either widening or shrinking. At most one of ARG and Zogby ought to be in the polling business. RealClearPolitics.com’s poll of polls gives the following average results:

Kerry 35.6

Dean 24.2

Edwards 12.4

Clark 10.6

Lieberman 7.4

Undecided 7.2

Clark wins solid majority in Dixville Notch, prepares to astound all the pollsters.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

3-Day Results Jan 24-26

Kerry 35 (-3)

Dean 25 (+5)

Edwards 15 (-1)

Clark 13 (-2)

Lieberman 6 (+1)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Sharpton 0 (even)

Other 0 (even)

Undecided 5 (even)

ARG comments:

The most significant result from the tracking for today is that support for Kerry, Clark, and Edwards dropped along with the continuing increase in support for Dean. Women 45 and older are returning to Howard Dean, helping to give him a 4 percentage-point gain on January 25 and a 5 percentage-point gain on January 26. Verbatims among this group point to fairness/sympathy for Dean and not beating George W. Bush driving the return to Dean. If the trend to Dean continues into tomorrow, the race will be very close as it appears that Kerry will not capture the undecided.

Zogby New Hampsire tracking

1/24-26

Kerry 37 (+6)

Dean 24 (-4)

Edwards 12 (even)

Clark 9 (-4)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Kucinich 3 (+1)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Undecided 3 (even)

Zogby comments:

For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary.

Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday’s one-day polling. In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and – this is particularly significant- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.

Edwards did not receive the same kind of Iowa bounce, as did Kerry. This is not surprising because he is not as well known nor has spent as much time in New Hampshire as the two front-runners. He is likely to end up in third place and that sets the table nicely for him in South Carolina.

Clark and Lieberman are not out of the running for third place- but Clark has experienced steady downward movement and Lieberman has yet to catch on.

A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message. New Hampshire voters are always volatile and its primaries are always fluid. I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong. I stand by my close numbers of the last few days as much as I stand by these final numbers.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup

Kerry 36

Dean 25

Clark 13

Edwards 10

Lieberman 10

UNH Survey Center

Kerry 26

Dean 25

Edwards 13

Clark 11

Lieberman 7

Kucinich 3

Rasmussen national tracking

Jan 24-26

Kerry 32 (even)

Dean 16 (even)

Edwards 14 (even)

Clark 11 (-1)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Kucinich 2 (-1)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Not Sure 14 (-2)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 55.5-57.8 (bid up 3.3)

Edwards 21-21.5 (bid up 0.8)

Dean 14-14.5 (down 5)

Clark 7.2-9.9 (down 0.6)

Lieberman 1-1.2 (down 0.2)

Clinton 1.1-1.4 (even)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 60.5-62.4 (bid up 4.5)

Edwards 19.1-22 (bid down 1.1)

Dean 11-14 (bid down 5)

Field (includes Clark) 7-8.9 (up 1.1)

Clinton 1.2-3.0 (even)

Lieberman 1-1.6 (up 0.7)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 88-93 (bid up 8)

Dean 7-9 (bid down 13)

Edwards 1.2-1.9 (up 0.2)

Field (includes Clark) 0.5-3 (up 0.4))

Tradesports Bush re-election

68-69 (bid up 0.9)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com