Kerry up, Clark down in pre-Iowa-result polling; markets hammer Dean, make Kerry favorite, then Dean and Edwards, then Clark
Jan 17-19
3-day moving average
3-Day Results Jan 16-18 Jan 17-19
Dean 28 (even)
Kerry 20 (+1)
Clark 19 (-1)
Edwards 8 (even)
Lieberman 7 (+1)
Gephardt 3 (even)
Kucinich 2 (+1)
Undecided 13 (-2)
Dean 22 (-1)
Kerry 13 (+2)
Clark 13 (-1)
Gephardt 10 (+1)
Edwards 10 (+1)
Lieberman 9(-1)
Kucinich 4% (+2)
Sharpton 2(-2)
Not Sure 15 (-1)
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Kerry 32.9-33.8 (bid up 20.1)
Dean 25.9-51.3 (bid down 26)
Clark 16-17.4 (down 4.2)
ROF (includes Edwards) 23.4-23.9 (up 14.7)
Clinton 1.5-1.8 (down 0.1)
Lieberman 1.3-1.5 (up 0.1)
Kerry 36.1-39.5 (bid up 18.5)
Dean 23-25 (bid down 24)
Edwards 20- 21.2 (up 11.5)
Field (includes Clark) 16.7-18.0 (down 2.6)
Clinton 2.5-3 (down 0.1)
Lieberman 1.8-3.80.6-1.8 (up 1)
Tradesports New Hampshire market
Kerry 43-48 (Up 22)
Dean 32-33 (down 29)
Field (includes Clark) 10.1-14 (down 5)
Edwards 8-10 (up 3)
Both ARG and Rasmussen note that their polling was largely completed before the Iowa results were in, so tomorrow’s numbers are a whole new game.
Dean’s betting-market numbers are substantially worse now than they were just after the results from Iowa were known. That may reflect delayed reaction, or it may reflect a judgment that his speech (which I didn’t see but was described to me by others as pretty awful) was damaging even over and above the damage inflicted by coming in a bad third.