Today’s numbers: Tuesday

Kerry up, Clark down in pre-Iowa-result polling; markets hammer Dean, make Kerry favorite, then Dean and Edwards, then Clark

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 17-19

3-day moving average

3-Day Results Jan 16-18 Jan 17-19

Dean 28 (even)

Kerry 20 (+1)

Clark 19 (-1)

Edwards 8 (even)

Lieberman 7 (+1)

Gephardt 3 (even)

Kucinich 2 (+1)

Undecided 13 (-2)

Rasmussen national tracking

Dean 22 (-1)

Kerry 13 (+2)

Clark 13 (-1)

Gephardt 10 (+1)

Edwards 10 (+1)

Lieberman 9(-1)

Kucinich 4% (+2)

Sharpton 2(-2)

Not Sure 15 (-1)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 32.9-33.8 (bid up 20.1)

Dean 25.9-51.3 (bid down 26)

Clark 16-17.4 (down 4.2)

ROF (includes Edwards) 23.4-23.9 (up 14.7)

Clinton 1.5-1.8 (down 0.1)

Lieberman 1.3-1.5 (up 0.1)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 36.1-39.5 (bid up 18.5)

Dean 23-25 (bid down 24)

Edwards 20- 21.2 (up 11.5)

Field (includes Clark) 16.7-18.0 (down 2.6)

Clinton 2.5-3 (down 0.1)

Lieberman 1.8-3.80.6-1.8 (up 1)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 43-48 (Up 22)

Dean 32-33 (down 29)

Field (includes Clark) 10.1-14 (down 5)

Edwards 8-10 (up 3)

Both ARG and Rasmussen note that their polling was largely completed before the Iowa results were in, so tomorrow’s numbers are a whole new game.

Dean’s betting-market numbers are substantially worse now than they were just after the results from Iowa were known. That may reflect delayed reaction, or it may reflect a judgment that his speech (which I didn’t see but was described to me by others as pretty awful) was damaging even over and above the damage inflicted by coming in a bad third.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com