Not Sure 11%
Kerry 68.3-68.6 (bid up 2.3)
Edwards 15.7-15.8 (bid down 5.3)
Dean 9.3-9.9 (up 0.8)
Clark 4.6-5 (down 0.2)
Lieberman 0.3-0.4 (even)
Clinton 1.1-1.5 (even)
Kerry 69.1-69.8 (bid up 8.6)
Edwards 15.2-18 (bid down 3.9)
Dean 11-14 (bid down 5)
Field (includes Clark) 3-5 (down 4)
Clinton 1.1-2.7 (up 0.1)
Lieberman 0.4-1.5 (down 0.6)
71-72 (bid up 3)
Three observations on the betting:
1. The markets are imperfect. Not only are some of the spreads wide, but there’s an arbitrage available between the Dean Iowa contract and the Dean Tradesports contract.
2. The chattering consensus is that Kerry is now very likely, and Dean very unlikely, to be nominated. I agree, and so do the markets.
3. The chattering consensus is that Kerry is a much stonger candidate in November than Bush. I agree, but the markets don’t reflect that view: Bush’s re-election is back to the low 70s from the high 60s. That could be explained by the fact that the odds on Clark, whom I still think is the strongest candidate of the bunch, have lengthened very considerably.
Naturally, the political professionals, who have a strong stake in being with the eventual winner early, are now flocking to Kerry. Since I’m not bound by the maxim “Don’t make no waves, don’t back no losers,” I’m sticking with Clark, for whatever my support is worth.