Today’s numbers: Thursday

Clark passes Dean in NH tracking. Kerry strong betting favorite.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan. 21 compared to Jan. 20 (n=302, 303)

Kerry 29 (even)

Clark 21 (+3)

Dean 17 (-7)

Edwards 10 (even)

Lieberman 7 (even)

Undecided 15 (+4)

ARG comments:

Is Howard Dean heading to third place in New Hampshire?

As the results for January 21 indicate, Howard Dean continues to lose support. This trend may continue as Dean’s favorable continued to drop on January 21. In the 3-day sample ending January 19, 57% of likely Democratic primary voters had a favorable opinion of Dean, 19% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 24% were aware of Dean but undecided. In the January 20 sample, 39% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 31% were undecided. In the January 21 sample, 33% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 37% were undecided. The movement from favorable to undecided signals a continuing drop in ballot preference for Dean.

Rasmussen national tracking

Two-day results

Kerry 29%

Edwards 16%

Dean 14%

Clark 12%

Lieberman 8%

Sharpton 3%

Kucinich 2%

Other 2%

Not Sure 17%

Rasmussen comments:

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is now the man to beat for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

In a national tracking survey conducted over the past three nights, Kerry holds a nine point lead over former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, 25% to 16%. North Carolina Senator John Edwards is third at 15% while retired General Wesley Clark is fourth at 12%.

The shift in the Democratic race is even more dramatic when you look at data collected in the two nights following the Iowa caucuses. In the two night tracking data on Tuesday and Wednesday, Edwards has passed Dean to move into second place. The two day totals show Kerry at 29% Edwards at 16%, Dean at 14%, and Clark at 12%.

Yesterday’s numbers show Kerry and Edwards moving up from the day before while Dean and Clark remained stable.

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 44.0-44.8 (bid up 8.6)

ROF (includes Edwards) 22.7-23.5 (up 0.5)

Clark 16.1-17 (up 1.1)

Dean 13.1-13.8 (bid down 9.9)

Clinton 1.7-2.0 (up 0.3)

Lieberman 1.6-2.0 (up 0.3)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 47.5-48 (bid up 9.4)

Edwards 21-22 (up 5.5)

Dean 15.5-18 (bid down 7.5)

Field (includes Clark) 12.1-17 (down 2.9)

Clinton 2.5-3 (down 0.1)

Lieberman 0.8-2 (down 1.2)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 73-85 (bid up 22)

Dean 18.1-22.5 (bid down 8.9)

Field (includes Clark) 5.6-6 (down 4)

Edwards 0.1-6 (down 5.0)

Tradesports Bush re-election

67.1-69.7 (bid down 0.5)

I’m not betting on this race; that would be inconsistent with playing journalist. But looking at the ARG polling data from New Hampshire, the 17-1 odds the Tradesports market is offering on Clark’s pulling it off in New Hampshire seems to me overly generous. With an 8-point gap between Kerry and Clark in the last night’s polling, and lots of potentially fluid votes, it would be a mistake to count Clark out. And if I were the Edwards campaign, the absence of a larger post-Iowa bounce in the NH polling would worry me. Edwards, having announced in Iowa that he would be contesting New Hampshire rather than skipping it and working South Carolina, is now in real danger of finishing fourth.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com