Today’s numbers: Sunday

Clark slips; Dean, Kerry gaining.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 15-17

3-day moving average

Dean 28 (even)

Clark 20 (-2)

Kerry 19 (+1)

Edwards 8 (even)

Lieberman 6 (even)

Gephardt 3 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 15 (+1)

ARG reports that Clark is gaining among independents but not among Democrats, while Kerry and Edwards are gaining among both groups.

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Jan 15-17

Dean 24 (+2)

Clark 16 (-1)

Kerry 11 (+1)

Lieberman 11 (+1)

Gephardt 9 (even)

Edwards 9 (+1)

Sharpton 4 (-2)

Kucinich 2% (+1)

Not Sure 15 (-2)

Zogby Iowa poll

Kerry 24(+1)

Dean 23 (+1)

Gephardt 19 (even)

Edwards 18 (even)

Clark 3 (even)

Kucinich 2 (even)

Lieberman 1 (even)

Sharpton 0.1 (even)

Undecided 10 (-1)

Kos predicts that Dean and Gephardt will outperform, and Kerry and Edwards underperform, compared to their polling numbers because Dean and Gephardt have the organization to get their voters out. His guess for the actual count: Dean 33, Gephardt 29, Kerry 20, Edwards 14. (That’s probably about the best result from Clark’s viewpoint: it hurts Gephardt — maybe fatally — and Edwards without helping Dean or Kerry too much.)

Tradesports has a market on Iowa: Dean’s probability of winning is traded at 45%, Kerry’s 30%, Gephardt at 11%, and Edwards at 8%. (Note these are probabilities of coming in first, not vote shares. So it’s not inconsistent to think that Gephardt is likely to beat Kerry, as Kos does, and that Kerry has a better chance of pulling out the whole thing, as the market does, if there’s greater uncertainty associated with Kerry’s turnout.)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 50.9-51.3 (bid down 0.6)

Clark 20.2-20.3 (bid down 0.1)

Kerry 12.8-14.6 (up 0.7)

ROF (includes Edwards) 8.3- 9.8 (down 0.4)

Gephardt 2.5-3.7 (down 1.2)

Lieberman 1.2-1.4 (up 0.2)

Clinton 2-2.1 (up 0.8)

Tradesports

Dean 48.5-50 (bid down 4.5)

Field (includes Clark) 20-23 (bid down 2.5)

Kerry 15.0-19.7 (up 1.7)

Edwards 8-10 (up 2.1)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 2.6-3.1 (up 0.1)

Lieberman 1.1-1.9 (up 0.1)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com