Clark slips; Dean, Kerry gaining.
Jan 15-17
3-day moving average
Dean 28 (even)
Clark 20 (-2)
Kerry 19 (+1)
Edwards 8 (even)
Lieberman 6 (even)
Gephardt 3 (even)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 15 (+1)
ARG reports that Clark is gaining among independents but not among Democrats, while Kerry and Edwards are gaining among both groups.
National Democrats
Jan 15-17
Dean 24 (+2)
Clark 16 (-1)
Kerry 11 (+1)
Lieberman 11 (+1)
Gephardt 9 (even)
Edwards 9 (+1)
Sharpton 4 (-2)
Kucinich 2% (+1)
Not Sure 15 (-2)
Kerry 24(+1)
Dean 23 (+1)
Gephardt 19 (even)
Edwards 18 (even)
Clark 3 (even)
Kucinich 2 (even)
Lieberman 1 (even)
Sharpton 0.1 (even)
Undecided 10 (-1)
Kos predicts that Dean and Gephardt will outperform, and Kerry and Edwards underperform, compared to their polling numbers because Dean and Gephardt have the organization to get their voters out. His guess for the actual count: Dean 33, Gephardt 29, Kerry 20, Edwards 14. (That’s probably about the best result from Clark’s viewpoint: it hurts Gephardt — maybe fatally — and Edwards without helping Dean or Kerry too much.)
Tradesports has a market on Iowa: Dean’s probability of winning is traded at 45%, Kerry’s 30%, Gephardt at 11%, and Edwards at 8%. (Note these are probabilities of coming in first, not vote shares. So it’s not inconsistent to think that Gephardt is likely to beat Kerry, as Kos does, and that Kerry has a better chance of pulling out the whole thing, as the market does, if there’s greater uncertainty associated with Kerry’s turnout.)
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Dean 50.9-51.3 (bid down 0.6)
Clark 20.2-20.3 (bid down 0.1)
Kerry 12.8-14.6 (up 0.7)
ROF (includes Edwards) 8.3- 9.8 (down 0.4)
Gephardt 2.5-3.7 (down 1.2)
Lieberman 1.2-1.4 (up 0.2)
Clinton 2-2.1 (up 0.8)
Dean 48.5-50 (bid down 4.5)
Field (includes Clark) 20-23 (bid down 2.5)
Kerry 15.0-19.7 (up 1.7)
Edwards 8-10 (up 2.1)
Clinton 2.6-3 (even)
Gephardt 2.6-3.1 (up 0.1)
Lieberman 1.1-1.9 (up 0.1)