Today’s numbers: Saturday

Rasmussen national tracking

Kerry 36% (even)

Dean 15% (-1)

Edwards 11% (+2)

Clark 9% (even)

Lieberman 7% (even)

Sharpton 3% (even)

Kucinich 1% (+1)

Not Sure 14% (+2)

Rasmussen November tracking:

Kerry 45% (even)

Bush 42% (-2)

Other 7% (+1)

Not Sure 6% (even)

Democrat (generic) 50% (+1)

Bush 41% (-1)

Other 3%

Not Sure 6%

Zogby tracking :

South Carolina

1/28-30

Edwards 26 (+1)

Kerry 22 (-2)

Dean 9 (even)

Clark 8 (even)

Sharpton 6 (+1)

Lieberman 4 (-1)

Missouri

1/28-30

Kerry 46 (+1)

Edwards 13 (+2)

Dean 9 (-1)

Lieberman 4

Clark 4 (+1)

Arizona

1/28-30

Kerry 36 (-2)

Clark 20 (+3)

Dean 12 (even)

Lieberman 7 (+1)

Edwards 6 (even)

Oklahoma

1/28-30

Oklahoma

Clark 25 (-2)

Kerry 22 (+3)

Edwards 16 (-1)

Dean 8 (-1)

Lieberman 6 (+1)

Undecided 21 (-2)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 75-77.1 (bid up 0.5)

Edwards 12.5-13.2 (bid up 1.9)

Dean 4.1-5.4 (up 0.5)

Clark 4.5-5 (down 0.1)

Lieberman 0.3-0.3 down 0.1 )

Clinton 1.2-1.9 (down 0.3)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 79-80 (bid down 0.3)

Edwards 11-12.9 (bid down 1.5)

Field (includes Clark) 4-6 (up 0.9)

Dean 3.1-5.7 (bid down 0.9)

Clinton 1.3-1.6 (even)

Lieberman 1.2-1.4 (even)

Tradesports Bush re-election

69-71.8 (bid down 2)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com