Today’s numbers: Saturday

Iowa tightens further; Kerry gains in NH.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 14-16

3-day moving average

Dean 28 (even)

Clark 22 (-1)

Kerry 18 (+2)

Edwards 8 (+2)

Lieberman 6 (-1)

Gephardt 3 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 14 (-2)

ARG reports that Clark is gaining among independents but not among Democrats, while Kerry and Edwards are gaining among both groups.

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Jan 13-15

Dean 22 (even)

Clark 17 (-1)

Kerry 10 (+1)

Lieberman 10 (+2)

Gephardt 9 (-1)

Edwards 8 (+1)

Sharpton 6 (even)

Kucinich 1% (-1)

Not Sure 17 (+2)

Zogby Iowa poll

Kerry 23(-1)

Dean 22 (+3)

Gephardt 19 (even)

Edwards 18 (+1)

Clark 3 (even)

Kucinich 2 (-1)

Lieberman 1 (even)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Undecided 11 (12)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 51.5-52.5 (bid up 1.5)

Clark 20.3-20.7 (bid down 2.1)

Kerry 11.9-12.5 (up 2.6)

ROF (includes Edwards) 8.7- 11 (down 0.1)

Gephardt 3.6-4.1 (even)

Lieberman 1.4-1.6 (up 0.2)

Clinton 1.2-1.5 (up 0.2)

Tradesports

Dean 53-54.6 (bid up 4)

Field (includes Clark) 22.5- 25 (bid down 2.5)

Kerry 13.3-15.8 (down 3.7)

Edwards 5.9- 7.3 (up 1.4)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 2.5-4.0 (even)

Lieberman 1.0-1.8 (up 0.2)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com