Today’s numbers: Saturday

Are ARG and Zogby polling the same race?

ARG New Hampshire tracking

3-Day Results Jan 21-23

Kerry 34 (+3)

Clark 20 (-1)

Dean 15% (-3)

Edwards 13 (+2)

Lieberman 6(-1)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 12 (even)

ARG comments:

Today’s tracking gives some hints about debate performance on Thursday and the impact of Howard Dean’s Primetime interview. The trends suggest that (1) Howard Dean’s slide in ballot preference has stopped (Dean’s 3-day favorable has increased to 35% from 31% and his unfavorable has decreased to 37% from 42%), (2) Wesley Clark has dropped to his lowest single-day ballot preference since January 4, and (3) John Kerry and John Edwards continue to gain support (Kerry began his upward trend on January 15). As Kerry’s lead continues to grow, Clark, Dean, and Edwards are battling for second place, but remain 20 percentage points behind Kerry. Ballot preference for Joe Lieberman remains in the single digits.

As of the tracking ending January 23, Clark’s strong support is 63% of his ballot preference, Dean’s strong support is 47% of his ballot preference, Edward’s strong support is 77% of his ballot preference, and Kerry’s strong support is 74% of his ballot preference. As a result, a total of 29 percentage points overall could switch before Tuesday, not including the 12% undecided.

Zogby New Hampsire tracking

Jan 21-23

John Kerry 31 (+1)

Howard Dean 22 (even)

Clark 14 (even)

Edwards 7 (+1)

Lieberman 7 (+1)

Kucinich 2 (+1)

Undecided 16 (-1)

Zogby comments: Kerry’s lead is now 9 points over three days; however he led only by 26%-22% over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10%.

Kerry leads among most sub-groups, including double-digit leads among Independents, the oldest voters, moderates, and married voters.

Dean’s showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase. Kerry’s 26-point performance on Friday is factored into two previous nights of double-digit leads. Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again.

More than three-in-five (62%) of Dean’s supporters say their support is ‘very strong,” as do 60% of Kerry’s. There appears to be movement here, as there was in Iowa.

Rasmussen national tracking

Jan 21-23

Kerry 31%

Edwards 15%

Dean 14%

Clark 14%

Lieberman 8%

Kucinich 3%

Sharpton 1%

Not Sure 14%

Kerry 31% (+2)

Edwards 15% (-2)

Dean 14% (even)

Clark 14% (+3)

Lieberman 8% (-1)

Kucinich 3% (even)

Sharpton 1% (-1)

Not Sure 16% (-2)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 56.4-59 (bid up 6.4)

ROF (includes Edwards) 20.4-21.9 (up 1.5)

Dean 12-13.3 (down 1.4)

Clark 8.1-8.3 (down 2.2)

Lieberman 1.3-1.5 (down 0.7)

Clinton 1.2-1.7 (down 0.2)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 55.6-59 (bid up 5.6)

Edwards 20.2-24.9 (bid up 0.2)

Dean 10.5-15 (bid down 4)

Field (includes Clark) 8.6-10.9 (up 0.2)

Lieberman 1.4-1.7 (up 0.1)

Clinton 1.2-2.9 (down 0.8)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 80.1-84 (bid up 2.1)

Dean 12-16 (bid down 1)

Edwards 2.2-3.7 (up 1)

Field (includes Clark) 1-5.4 (down 4)

Tradesports Bush re-election

66.5-69.8 (bid down 0.1)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

2 thoughts on “Today’s numbers: Saturday”

  1. My final thoughts on New Hampshire

    John Ellis reports that the media covering the NH primary is at sea: It's clear that the national political press corps is flummoxed by New Hampshire. They have no idea what's going on, although they all agree that Kerry will…

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