Today’s numbers: Monday

ARG and Zogby still seem to be polling different races, but Clark isn’t doing well in either one. Dean coming back. Clark looks stronger in Feb. 3 states.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

3-Day Results Jan 23-25

Kerry 38 (even)

Dean 20 (+4)

Edwards 16 (+1)

Clark 15 (+2)

Lieberman 5 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Sharpton 0 (even)

Other 0 (even)

Undecided 1 (-4)

Zogby New Hampsire tracking

1/23-25

Kerry 31 (+1)

Dean 28 (+5)

Clark 13 (even)

Edwards 12 (+3)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Kucinich 2 (even)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Undecided 3 (-10) (undecideds pushed)

ARG South Carolina

January compared to December

Edwards 21 (+13)

Kerry 17 (+15)

Sharpton 15 (+3)

Clark 14 (+2)

Howard Dean 9 (-7)

Lieberman 5 (-2)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 29 (-9)

ARG Oklahoma

January v. December

Clark 23 (+2)

Edwards 18 (+15)

Kerry 17 (+15)

Dean 8 (-16)

Lieberman 10 (+1)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Undecided 22 (-12)

ARG Arizona

January v. December

Kerry 24 (+18)

Clark 21 (+6)

Edwards 15 (+14)

Dean 10 (-16)

Lieberman 7 (-2)

Kucinich 0 (-1)

Sharpton 0 (even)

Undecided 23 (-12)

Rasmussen national tracking

Kerry 32 (+1)

Dean 16 (+2)

Edwards 14 (-1)

Clark 12 (-2)

Lieberman 9 (+1)

Kucinich 3 (+1)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Not Sure 16 (+2)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 50.2-52 (bid down 5)

ROF (includes Edwards) 20.2-21.9 (bid down 0.2)

Dean 19-19.4 (up 7)

Clark 7.8-9.5 (down 0.3)

Lieberman 1.2-1.9 (down 0.1)

Clinton 1.1-1.8 (down 0.1)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 56.0-57.9 (bid up 0.4)

Edwards 20.2-24.9 (bid up 1.2)

Dean 16-17 (bid up 5.5)

Field (includes Clark) 5.9-8.5 (down 2.4)

Clinton 1.2-2.0 (even)

Lieberman 0.3-1.3 (down 1.1)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 76-81 (bid down 4.1)

Dean 20-23 (bid up 7)

Edwards 1-2.7 (down 2.2)

Field (includes Clark) 0.1-3 (0.9)

Tradesports Bush re-election

67.1-68.5 (bid up 0.5)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com