Today’s numbers: Monday

Kerry up, Edwards surging in Iowa; Clark slips a bit nationally.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 16-18

3-day moving average

Dean 28 (even)

Clark 20 (even)

Kerry 19 (even)

Edwards 8 (even)

Lieberman 6 (even)

Gephardt 3 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 15 (even)

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Jan 16-18

Dean 24 (even)

Clark 14 (-2)

Kerry 11 (even)

Lieberman 10 (-1)

Gephardt 9 (even)

Edwards 9 (even)

Sharpton 4 (even)

Kucinich 2% (even)

Not Sure 15 (even)

Zogby Iowa tracking

Kerry 25(+1)

Dean 22 (-1)

Edwards 21 (+3)

Gephardt 18 (-1)

Clark 2 (-1)

Kucinich 2 (even)

Lieberman 1 (even)

Sharpton 0.1 (even)

Undecided 9 (-1)

The Iowa market now has Kerry and Dean both at 38% likely to win Iowa, Edwards and Gephardt at about 10% each.

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 50.9-51.3 (bid down 0.6)

Clark 20.2-20.3 (bid down 0.1)

Kerry 12.8-14.6 (up 0.7)

ROF (includes Edwards) 8.3- 9.8 (down 0.4)

Gephardt 2.5-3.7 (down 1.2)

Lieberman 1.2-1.4 (up 0.2)

Clinton 2-2.1 (up 0.8)

Tradesports

WTA Democratic nomination market

Dean 47-50 (bid down 1.5)

Field (includes Clark) 19.3-22.9 (bid down 0.7)

Kerry 17.6-21 (up 2.6)

Edwards 8.5-10 (up 0.5)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 3-4 (up 0.1)

Lieberman 0.6-1.8 (down 0.5))

The polling numbers haven’t been kind to Clark this week. The apparently coordinated attack designed to make him look inconsistent about the war in Iraq seems to have taken a toll. The two markets haven’t reacted as much as might have been expected. The bettors rate Dean’s chances noticeably lower than they did a week ago, and Kerry’s higher, but Clark is only slightly off his highs, with the markets giving him a 20% chance to be the nominee.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com