Kerry up, Edwards surging in Iowa; Clark slips a bit nationally.
Jan 16-18
3-day moving average
Dean 28 (even)
Clark 20 (even)
Kerry 19 (even)
Edwards 8 (even)
Lieberman 6 (even)
Gephardt 3 (even)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 15 (even)
National Democrats
Jan 16-18
Dean 24 (even)
Clark 14 (-2)
Kerry 11 (even)
Lieberman 10 (-1)
Gephardt 9 (even)
Edwards 9 (even)
Sharpton 4 (even)
Kucinich 2% (even)
Not Sure 15 (even)
Kerry 25(+1)
Dean 22 (-1)
Edwards 21 (+3)
Gephardt 18 (-1)
Clark 2 (-1)
Kucinich 2 (even)
Lieberman 1 (even)
Sharpton 0.1 (even)
Undecided 9 (-1)
The Iowa market now has Kerry and Dean both at 38% likely to win Iowa, Edwards and Gephardt at about 10% each.
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Dean 50.9-51.3 (bid down 0.6)
Clark 20.2-20.3 (bid down 0.1)
Kerry 12.8-14.6 (up 0.7)
ROF (includes Edwards) 8.3- 9.8 (down 0.4)
Gephardt 2.5-3.7 (down 1.2)
Lieberman 1.2-1.4 (up 0.2)
Clinton 2-2.1 (up 0.8)
WTA Democratic nomination market
Dean 47-50 (bid down 1.5)
Field (includes Clark) 19.3-22.9 (bid down 0.7)
Kerry 17.6-21 (up 2.6)
Edwards 8.5-10 (up 0.5)
Clinton 2.6-3 (even)
Gephardt 3-4 (up 0.1)
Lieberman 0.6-1.8 (down 0.5))
The polling numbers haven’t been kind to Clark this week. The apparently coordinated attack designed to make him look inconsistent about the war in Iraq seems to have taken a toll. The two markets haven’t reacted as much as might have been expected. The bettors rate Dean’s chances noticeably lower than they did a week ago, and Kerry’s higher, but Clark is only slightly off his highs, with the markets giving him a 20% chance to be the nominee.