Today’s numbers: Friday

Rasmussen national tracking

Kerry 36% (+2)

Dean 17% (even)

Edwards 16% (+2)

Clark 9% (-3)

Lieberman 7% (-1)

Sharpton 3% (-1)

Kucinich 0%

Not Sure 12% (+1)

Rasmussen November tracking:

Bush 44%

Kerry 45%

Other 6%

Not Sure 6%

Bush 42%

Democrat (generic) 49%

Other 3%

Not Sure 6%

Zogby tracking (thanks to Daily Kos):

South Carolina

1/27-29

Edwards 25

Kerry 24

Dean 9

Clark 8

Sharpton 5

Lieberman 5

Missouri

1/27-29

Kerry 45

Edwards 11

Dean 9

Lieberman 4

Clark 3

Arizona

1/27-29

Kerry 38

Clark 17

Dean 12

Edwards 6

Lieberman 6

Oklahoma

1/27-29

Clark 27

Kerry 19

Edwards 17

Dean 9

North Dakota (Minnensota State University)

1/26-28

Kerry 31

Clark 15

Edwards 6

Dean 5

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 74.5-75.5 (bid up 6.2)

Edwards 10.6-13.0 (bid down 5.1)

Dean 3.8-5.9 (down 5.5)

Clark 4.6-5.4 (even)

Lieberman 0.3-0.4 (even)

Clinton 1.5-1.9 (up 0.4)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 79.3-80.7 (bid up 10.2)

Edwards 12.5-13.4 (bid down 2.7)

Dean 4-5.8 (bid down 7)

Field (includes Clark) 3.1-4.1 (up 0.1)

Clinton 1.3-1.7 (up 0.2)

Lieberman 1.2-1.5 (up 0.8)

Tradesports Bush re-election

71-71.5 (even)

From the viewpoint of a Clark fan, there isn’t too much to cheer about in these numbers. But if — a big if, obviously — Kerry were to inch out Edwards in South Carolina and hold on everywhere else he’s now ahead, and if Clark actually wins Oklahoma, where he seems to be ahead, and finishes respectably elsewhere, Clark might wind up in a two-way race against Kerry, or a three-way race against Kerry and Dean. Neither of those looks from here like a hopeless endeavor.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com