Today’s numbers: Friday

Clark and Dean each down a point, Kerry up a point in NH: now 28-23-17. Kerry pulling ahead, Dean fading in Iowa: still a four-way race.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Jan 13-15

3-day moving average

Dean 28 (-1)

Clark 23 (-1)

Kerry 16 (+1)

Lieberman 7 (-2)

Edwards 5 (+1)

Gephardt 3 (-1)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 17(+1)

ARG reports that women defecting from Dean are headed into Kerry’s column.

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Jan 13-15

Dean 22 (+1)

Clark 18 (-1)

Gephardt 10 (-1)

Kerry 9% (even)

Lieberman 8 (+)

Edwards 7 (-1)

Sharpton 6 (+1)

Mosely-Braun 3% (+1)

Kucinich 2% (+1)

Not Sure 15 (-1)

Zogby Iowa poll

Kerry 24(+2)

Dean 19 (-2)

Gephardt 19 (-2)

Edwards 17 (even)

Clark 3 (even)

Kucinich 2 (even)

Lieberman 1 (even)

Sharpton 1 (even)

Undecided 13 (+2)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 50-51.8 (bid down 9.8)

Clark 22.4-23.7 (bid down 0.6)

Kerry 9.3-10.7 (up 5.6)

ROF (includes Edwards) 8.8- 9.9 (up 2.6)

Gephardt 3.6-4.8 (down 1.2)

Lieberman 1.5-1.9 (down 0.8)

Clinton 1.2-1.5 (up 0.2)

Tradesports

Dean 49-50 (bid down 4)

Field (includes Clark) 25.0-28 (bid down 2.5)

Kerry 17-18.9 (up 9)

Edwards 4.5-5.9 (up 0.4)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 2.5-2.9 (down 0.6)

Lieberman 0.8-1.6 (up 0.1)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com