Today’s numbers: Friday

Zogby, ARG see opposite trends for Clark in NH. The markets seem to believe Zogby.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

3-Day Results Jan 20-22

Kerry 31 (+4)

Clark 20 (+1)

Dean 18% (-4)

Edwards 11 (+2)

Lieberman 7 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 12 (-2)

ARG comments:

Howard Dean’s favorable is now at 31%, his unfavorable is 42%, and 27% are aware of Dean but undecided. Yesterday, Dean’s favorable was 33%, his unfavorable was 30%, and 37% were undecided. Of the 31% with a favorable opinion of Dean, 28% say they will vote for Dean and 32% say they will vote for John Kerry.

Kerry’s favorable is 77%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wesley Clark’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided. John Edward’s favorable is 56%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 30% are undecided. Joe Lieberman’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 30%, and 21% are undecided.

Zogby New Hampsire tracking

Jan 20-22

John Kerry 30 (+3)

Howard Dean 22 (-2)

Clark 14 (-1)

Edwards 7 (-1)

Lieberman 6 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 17 (even)

Rasmussen national tracking

Three-day results, compared to two-day results from yesterday:

Kerry 29% (even)

Edwards 17% (+1)

Dean 14% (even)

Clark 11% (-1)

Lieberman 9% (+1)

Sharpton 2% (-1)

Kucinich 3% (+1)

Other 2% (even)

Not Sure 16% (even)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 50-59.7 (bid up 6)

ROF (includes Edwards) 18.9-20 (down 3.8)

Clark 10.3-13.9 (down 5.8)

Dean 13.4-14.5 (up 3)

Clinton 1.4-1.8 (down 0.2)

Lieberman 2-2.4 (up 0.6)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 50-54.9 (bid up 2.5)

Edwards 20.22 (down 0.8)

Dean 14.5-16 (bid down 1)

Field (includes Clark) 8.8-17 (down 3.3)

Clinton 2-2.9 (down 0.3)

Lieberman 0.3-1.4 (down 0.5)

Tradesports New Hampshire market

Kerry 78-81 (bid up 5)

Dean 13-15 (bid down 5.1)

Field (includes Clark) 5.6-6.5 (even)

Edwards 1-4.9 (up 0.9)

Tradesports Bush re-election

66.6-68.9 (bid down 0.5)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com