Zogby, ARG see opposite trends for Clark in NH. The markets seem to believe Zogby.
3-Day Results Jan 20-22
Kerry 31 (+4)
Clark 20 (+1)
Dean 18% (-4)
Edwards 11 (+2)
Lieberman 7 (even)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 12 (-2)
ARG comments:
Howard Dean’s favorable is now at 31%, his unfavorable is 42%, and 27% are aware of Dean but undecided. Yesterday, Dean’s favorable was 33%, his unfavorable was 30%, and 37% were undecided. Of the 31% with a favorable opinion of Dean, 28% say they will vote for Dean and 32% say they will vote for John Kerry.
Kerry’s favorable is 77%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wesley Clark’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided. John Edward’s favorable is 56%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 30% are undecided. Joe Lieberman’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 30%, and 21% are undecided.
Jan 20-22
John Kerry 30 (+3)
Howard Dean 22 (-2)
Clark 14 (-1)
Edwards 7 (-1)
Lieberman 6 (even)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 17 (even)
Three-day results, compared to two-day results from yesterday:
Kerry 29% (even)
Edwards 17% (+1)
Dean 14% (even)
Clark 11% (-1)
Lieberman 9% (+1)
Sharpton 2% (-1)
Kucinich 3% (+1)
Other 2% (even)
Not Sure 16% (even)
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Kerry 50-59.7 (bid up 6)
ROF (includes Edwards) 18.9-20 (down 3.8)
Clark 10.3-13.9 (down 5.8)
Dean 13.4-14.5 (up 3)
Clinton 1.4-1.8 (down 0.2)
Lieberman 2-2.4 (up 0.6)
Kerry 50-54.9 (bid up 2.5)
Edwards 20.22 (down 0.8)
Dean 14.5-16 (bid down 1)
Field (includes Clark) 8.8-17 (down 3.3)
Clinton 2-2.9 (down 0.3)
Lieberman 0.3-1.4 (down 0.5)
Tradesports New Hampshire market
Kerry 78-81 (bid up 5)
Dean 13-15 (bid down 5.1)
Field (includes Clark) 5.6-6.5 (even)
Edwards 1-4.9 (up 0.9)
66.6-68.9 (bid down 0.5)