Today’s numbers

NH tightens again, now 34-20; Clark leads in favorabilty. Surveys USA polls show Clark up in AZ, close in NH.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Dean 34 (-2)

Clark 20 (+1)

Kerry 11 (+1)

Lieberman 9 (-1)

Gephardt 4 (even)

Edwards 3 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 18 (+1)

ARG comments:

Women age 45 and older who are soft supporters of Howard Dean in the ballot preference are reconsidering their support for Howard Dean. Dean’s favorable has slipped to 57% from 65% over the past 2 days, but his unfavorable remains steady at 19%. Those moving from favorable to undecided about Dean are for the most part women 45 and older.

At the same time, Wesley Clark now leads the field in favorability at 72% (with an 8% unfavorable). This is up from 53% when the tracking began and up from 49% in mid-December.

When the tracking began, Dean was in front of Clark 30% to 22% among men and 43% to 7% among women. In the 3 days ending January 12, Dean leads Clark 32% to 25% among men and 36% to 15% among women.

[That 8% unfavorable in the state where Clark has been practically living ought to, but probably won’t, stop Mickey Kaus from predicting that the voters will eventually find him “weird.”]

Rasmussen national tracking

Dean 22 (+1)

Clark 18 (+1)

Gephardt 9 (even)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Edwards 9 (+1)

Kerry 8 (even)

Moseley-Braun 5 (even)

Sharpton 2 (-2)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Not Sure 17 (-1)

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 61.3-62.1 (bid down 2.5)

Clark 19-20.2 (bid up 0.8)

Gephardt 5.4- 7.2 (up 0.4)

Kerry 4.2-4.7 (even)

Clinton 1.8- 2.4 (down 0.7)

Lieberman 2.3- 2.4 (up 1.5)

ROF (includes Edwards) 5.3- 5.5 (up 1.4)

Tradesports

Dean 60.5-61.9 (even)

Field (includes Clark) 22.0-25.1 (bid down 1.3)

Gephardt 2.5- 4.0 (up 0.5)

Edwards 4-6 (up 1.5)

Clinton 2.6-3 (down 1.4)

Kerry 3.0- 3.8 (up 1)

Lieberman 0.6-2.0 (down 1.4)

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NH040112demprimary.pdf

Surveys USA, which uses robo-calling and is therefore considered somewhat flaky, reports

results from NH, Arizona, and Missouri. SUSA tends to report very low “undecided” figures. (See the discussion at Daily Kos.) The numbers, for what they’re worth, show Clark leading in Arizona, 39-32, and behind only by single digits in New Hampshire, at Dean 35, Clark 26. Missouri is Gephardt 37, Dean 19, Clark 15.

NH 1/9/04 – 1/11/04

568 “certain voters”

Dean 35%

Clark 26%

Kerry 13%

Lieberman 9%

Edwards 6%

Gephardt 3%

Other 5%

Undecided 2%

Arizona 1/9-1/11

412 “certain voters”

Clark 39%

Dean 32%

Lieberman 8%

Kerry 5%

Gephardt 4%

Other 7%

Undecided 4%

Missouri 1/9-1/11

461 “certain voters”

Gephardt 37%

Dean 19%

Clark 15%

Kerry 6%

Lieberman 5%

Edwards 5%

Other 6%

Undecided 6%

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com