Today’s numbers

Clark closing fast on Dean in NH: last-day figures within 4 points. Dean national lead over Clark down to 2 points, 21-19. Kerry surging, Dean fading in Iowa; last day had Kerry ahead.

ARG New Hampshire tracking

Dean 32 (-2)

Clark 22 (+2)

Kerry 13 (+2)

Lieberman 9 (even)

Gephardt 4 (even)

Edwards 3 (even)

Kucinich 1 (even)

Undecided 16 (-2)

ARG comments:

The daily trends show Wesley Clark closing in on Howard Dean. There was a 13 percentage-point gap between Clark and Dean on January 11, an 8 percentage-point gap on January 12, and a 4 percentage-point gap on January 13. If the trend continues, and even if Dean holds his core support, Clark could tie and move in front of Dean in New Hampshire before the results from Iowa are known.

John Kerry is also benefiting from the movement away from Dean and our models indicate that John Edwards is another candidate that these voters are considering.

This race is far from being settled. Welcome to the New Hampshire primary.

Rasmussen national tracking

National Democrats

Dean 21% (-1)

Clark 19% (+1)

Gephardt 11% (+2)

Kerry 8% (-1)

Lieberman 8% (-1)

Edwards 7% (-2)

Mosely-Braun 5% (even)

Sharpton 2% (even)

Kucinich 1% (even)

Not Sure 16% (-1)

Zogby Iowa poll

Jan 11-13 (3-day moving average)

Dean 24 (-4)

Kerry 21 (+4)

Gephardt 21 (-2)

Edwards 15 (+1)

Clark (+1)

Kucinich 2 (-1)

Lieberman 1 (even)

Mosley-Braun 1 (even)

Sharpton 0.1 (even)

Undecided 13

Zogby comments:

This is officially a 3-way race. Kerry is surging. He actually led the pack on Monday with 25% for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18%. Dean leads in the West, with Kerry in 2nd and Gephardt slipping, but Gephardt leads in the Central region of Iowa and the three are tied in the East.

Kerry now leads among liberals, while moderates belong to Gephardt. The three candidates are bunched together among Democrats. Dean still leads among voters under 50, and Gephardt dominates voters over age 65. But it’s a 3-way race for those 50-64 years old.

Kerry is challenging Dean for college educated voters, and challenging Gephardt for union votes. The three are tied among men, and the top four (including Edwards) are tied among women.

This is fascinating. There’s major movement every day in Iowa.

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Dean 59.8-60.1 (bid down 1.5)

Clark 23-24 (bid up 4)

ROF (includes Edwards) 6.2- 6.6 (up 0.9)

Gephardt 4.8- 5.2 (down 0.4)

Kerry 3.6-4.1 (down 0.6)

Lieberman 2.3- 2.4 (up 0.8)

Clinton 1.0-1.6 (down 0.6)

Tradesports

Dean 61-62.7 (up 0.5)

Field (includes Clark) 22.7-27.0 (bid up 0.7)

Edwards 4-4.9 (even)

Kerry 4-5 (up 1)

Clinton 2.6-3 (even)

Gephardt 2.5- 3.0 (even)

Lieberman 0.7-1.7 (up 0.1)

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com