The other shoe drops

WMUR now also has Obama up by 10 points in NH, with Edwards fading.

The (apparently well-respected) WMUR/CNN poll, which stood out from the others in showing New Hampshire still close on the Democratic side, now shows Obama up 10 points (in line with Rasmussen and ARG) with Edwards fading. The three sets of percentages below represent: Saturday night and Sunday morning, Friday night and Saturday morning, and the weekend before New Year’s.

Obama   39% 33% 30%

Clinton   29% 33% 34%

Edwards 16% 20% 17%

The sample sizes are small, but I think it’s time for Mark Penn to start sharpening his seppuku sword. Unless there’s a shock, it looks as if Obama not just going to win; he’s going to win big.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: