The lines finally cross

Latest ARG tracking numbers:

Dean 36, down 1 from yesterday

Clark 16, up 2

Kerry 13, down 1

Lieberman 7, even

A two-point jump in a three-day moving average means that the most recent day must have been a very good one for Clark. That could, of course, be noise: there’s a big error band around the estimate from a daily sample of 150. But it could also indicate real movement.

If Clark were to establish a firm hold on second place, that might make him a magnet for the 16% “undecided” and for some of the 31% now going to Kerry, Leiberman, and the also-rans.

Maybe skipping Iowa wasn’t such a bad move after all?

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

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