If my arithmetic is right, Kerry is ahead of push in the latest day of polling from Rasmussen.
Poll-induced panic is always a threat to a campaign. So before all the Democrats stick their heads in the oven over the Time and Newsweek polls, take a look at what Rasmussen’s robots are doing. Bush jumped to a four-point lead during the convention, but that’s down to 1.2% today, which if my arithmetic is right means that the latest day of polling (Rasmussen reports a three-day moving average) must have had Kerry back in the lead. Now that Rasmussen’s daily sample size is up to 1000, those one-day figures can be taken a little bit seriously.
No doubt the picture is grimmer now than it was a month ago: the Republicans did will at counterpunching during the Democratic convention, and we didn’t return the favor. But now is not the time to get discouraged or to start recriminating.
Don’t mourn, organize!
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman