Random thought

Huckabee v. Romney for the 2012 GOP nomination?

With Palin out, is the 2012 GOP nomination contest going to come down to Romney v. Huckabee?

I was hoping for Palin as the nominee; I thought the flake factor would give Obama a very good shot at a landslide. Romney, creepy as he is, is a more plausible Presidential candidate. But I’m not sure he can take Huckabee head-to-head.

This could turn into a real knock-down, drag-out fight. Huckabee is likely to emerge as the favorite of the God faction of the God-and-Mammon party, but he makes the Mammonites really, really nervous.

If it came down to the GOP base, Huckabee might pull it off anyway, but with no contest on the Democratic side a bunch of moderate-minded independents in open-primary states may take GOP ballots. But would the Christianist base hold still for Romney? Would the money-cons allow Romney to put Huckabee in the second slot?

Footnote This assumes that Palin now can’t get the nomination. But she might still be able to mount enough of a campaign to split the ignoramus wing that Huckabee would otherwise own.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com