Query

What happens if you project the swing in the Ohio Second District nationally?

According to Charlie Cook (per DKos), Ohio’s Second Congressional District, which the Republicans just held by a 52-48 vote, was about 13 points more Republican than the country as a whole in the last two Presidential elections.

What would happen if that were the pattern nationally: i.e., if the Republican Congressional candidate in each district got a vote share that was 12 points below Cook’s Partisan Voting Index for that district? How many seats would change hands?

Update The consensus seems to be that a swing that big would move 70 seats into the Democratic column, but that the more modest but still substantial swing indicated by current national polls wouldn’t even give the Democrats control of the House, due to the thoroughness with which the Red State Leninists have carried out their gerrymandering.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com