Planning v. luck

We got away with it: this time. But the levees aren’t going to be back in shape for another three years. Dumb luck. Sheer dumb luck.

Gustav hit the coast farther from New Orleans and with less power than the forecasters had feared. As a result, the levees seem to have held. That’s luck.

The damage the levees sustained in 2005 isn’t supposed to be repaired until 2011. That’s planning. Bad planning.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: