Tom Edsall reads the tea-leaves and projects a long period of Democratic dominance.

Via Tom Edsall, this gem from David Frum:

College-educated Americans have come to believe that their money is safe with Democrats – but that their values are under threat from Republicans. And there are more and more of these college-educated Americans all the time.

Frum’s point: Joe the Plumber isn’t enough to win elections anymore, and a Republican party built around Palinism can’t get anyone else.

Edsall’s point: This ain’t 1992, and 2010 ain’t 1994. If Obama plays his cards right, this could be 1932, with the Democrats getting credit for digging the country out of the economic hole the Republicans left it in and in the process passing some big programs (e.g., health care) that earn them lasting voter loyalty.

Add to all this what may well turn into a Democratic lock on the Millenials (birth cohorts 1985-2000) and we could be in for a nice, long ride. Now’s the time to think about rebuilding the state parties; in some states, the Obama machine could form the nucleus.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com