O Pollkatz,
    thou shouldst be blogging at this hour!

Some encouraging trends (unless you’re George Bush) in the President’s job-approval figures.

Prof. Pollkatz is no longer maintaining his poll of polls, which is too bad considering how eagerly he was waiting for the Bush “disapprove” line to finally cross the “approve” line, as it has this month.

But Steve Ruggles contributes this graph of the approval numbers. Meanwhile, David Finley at Hearts and Minds has not only a graph but an analysis.

What would really have me sweating if I were Karl Rove is that Bush’s personal favorable/unfavorable numbers — which, in a pattern opposite to Bill Clinton’s, have always been above his job performance — have now dropped to 46-46.

Of course, just as Bush’s sky-high ratings post 9-11 were largely situational rather than personal, he’s certainly taking a hit today from the mess in Iraq. If it gets better, so will his numbers. But it does seem that the voters are refiguring their judgment of his character, not just his job performance. And right now I’m not betting on better news from Iraq.

Update Two readers point me to Radio Free Monkey, which has a nice spread of graphs.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com