Exit polls show Obama +20 among men, -7 among women. That ought to suggest about a 5-poin win overall, assuming somewhat more women than men voting. Big turnout among the elderly; which seems to have been the key to Clinton’s better-than-expected performance.
But the networks aren’t calling it yet, and the betting markets now have HRC favored to win NH and even money on the nomination.
Update Or maybe not. Supposedly those were early numbers, and later numbers give it to HRC.
Second update Called for Clinton. Looks like she’s going to win by about 3 points. The old folks voted in droves, the kids didn’t. And women broke for HRC.
Now ain’t that a revoltin’ development, Ollie?
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman