More un-panic

The Time and Newsweek numbers aren’t being confirmed in other polling.

Kerry has slipped from even to down 3-2 in the Tradesports betting market.

But the latest poll data don’t seem to be confirming the huge convention bounce for Bush measured by Time and Newsweek. Rasmusen’s latest has Kerry down by just 1.1%, and that includes the numbers from Friday, when Bush was riding high. (UPDATE: Scott Rasmussen thinks Bush’s lead is actually four points, based on the average of Friday and Sunday,and that his Saturday sample was punk. He thinks Time and Newsweeks fouled up their “likely voter” models and overweighted Republicans.)

The latest CNN/USAT/Gallup has Kerry down by 7, but Gallup tends to lean Republican; Bush has been ahead by three or four points, according to Gallup, since the end of July. The survey was taken Friday/Saturday/Sunday, so it reflects mostly the convention bounce and almost not at all any return to earth.

Prof. Pollkatz has a state-level model, using fairly fancy statistics, which projects that if the election were held today Kerry would squeak by Bush 271-267, without taking either Ohio or Florida. Kerry would have to hold on to slim leads in West Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon to win that way, but it’s not a discouraging number at all.

It’s not that I don’t want Kerry and his supporters angry and scared. Angry and scared is good. What I don’t want to see is a replay of 2000, where the media convinced Democrats that Gore was losing, which made them think of him as a loser and start to pick him apart. The time for post-mortems is after the patient is dead. This one seems pretty healthy.

Update: Expert thoughts, in a comparably cheerful vein, from Ruy Teixeira.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact:

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