Newsweek and Zogby have almost identical numbers (on slightly different questions) about re-electing Bush: Newsweek has 44-49 against, while Zogby is at 45-48. The combined sample size is nearly 2000.[*] Like Schwarzenegger, Bush has managed to generate an aura of invincibility which is itself a significant campaign advantage. But between the poll numbers and the Iowa Elections Market (which has Bush behind either Hillary (!) or Player to Be Named Later, and even with everyone else) [*], I’m not sure how long that aura can last.
Bush’s job approval is still in positive territory, though it’s been trending down. If I had to guess, I’d guess that he’s now pretty much down to his hard core. I think the most likely outcome is that we’ll be up late on Election Night.
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman