McBride Will Beat Reno

No one else will call it, so I will: McBride beats Reno.

Right now, he’s up by just under 24,000 votes, or 1.8%, with only 4.5% left to count. About 13% of Miami-Dade is still out; Reno was ahead by 63,000 in the remainder of Miami-Dade, so a straight-line projection has her picking up 63,000 (13/87) = 9500 there. Palm Beach should give her another 4000 or so net, Broward another 1000. No reason to think she’ll have much of an edge among the absentees or provisional votes. So it looks like McBride, and by enough of a margin to avoid an automatic recount, unless those missing precincts in Miami went for Reno even more lopsidedly than the rest of the county.

UPDATE: Herald calls it for McBride. Bride’s lead down to 11,000, but with only 1% left to count. Lots of horror stories, including a precinct where votes were counted for 900% of those registered and another where only one vote was cast. Reno’s people making ugly noises.

Oh, and the anti-gay-rights initiative went down, though not by very much. Apparently much of the Cuban leadership was persuaded that this was a human rights issue. Of course the Castro regime has a pretty horrible record of persecuting gays.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com