Mack trucks and Krug

The likely coming Obama landslide.

A week ago Nate Silver could make the presidential race in Georgia competitive by ingenious special pleading over turnout. Now he makes it competitive just reading off the latest poll in the state, that shows McCain leading by 3%, within the margin of error. Nationally, tracker poll averages show Obama leading by 8%, well outside any MoE; the Intrade contract for Obama is at 77, and my little 5:1 flutter on his carrying North Carolina is now at 58.

Nate is too professional to predict a landslide. I don’t have any reputation as a seer to lose, so I’m free to go ahead.

I agree with his commenter “tyler curtain” on Michael Barone and similar Republican pundits:

They really are deer-in-the-headlights. And those lights are attached to an electoral Mack truck.

Except that the critter in the headlights is looking less and less like an innocent Bambi and more like this.

Things can still go wrong. But choice-supportive bias – an attested mechanism by which we reduce the stress of cognitive dissonance – is now working for Obama. Once you’ve decided to buy the Prius not the Hummer, the Toyota starts looking better and better. Obama voters won’t change their minds unless McCain can produce the incriminating tape and the goat.

So the £200 pink champagne can stay for now in the presentation box that Mark kindly sent me. (The hastily printed new label “Masters of the Universe – Elite Liberal Bloggers, Grand Cru revanche 2000″ peels off to reveal the previous branding “Masters of the Universe – derivatives trader high-maintenance girlfriend 2007 vintage”. )

But Banco Popular is still in business today, so I think I’ll head for the expat bar on the seafront in search of a celebratory artery-clogging British fryup.

Author: James Wimberley

James Wimberley (b. 1946, an Englishman raised in the Channel Islands. three adult children) is a former career international bureaucrat with the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. His main achievements there were the Lisbon Convention on recognition of qualifications and the Kosovo law on school education. He retired in 2006 to a little white house in Andalucia, His first wife Patricia Morris died in 2009 after a long illness. He remarried in 2011. to the former Brazilian TV actress Lu Mendonça. The cat overlords are now three. I suppose I've been invited to join real scholars on the list because my skills, acquired in a decade of technical assistance work in eastern Europe, include being able to ask faux-naïf questions like the exotic Persians and Chinese of eighteenth-century philosophical fiction. So I'm quite comfortable in the role of country-cousin blogger with a European perspective. The other specialised skill I learnt was making toasts with a moral in the course of drunken Caucasian banquets. I'm open to expenses-paid offers to retell Noah the great Armenian and Columbus, the orange, and university reform in Georgia. James Wimberley's occasional publications on the web

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