Liveblogging the results

I’ll be blogging until it’s done (I refuse to consider the possibility that it won’t get done tonight.
Early indications are favorable.

Looks like bad news:

ABC and NBC just joined Fox in calling Ohio for Bush. If so, it’s over. Is Bush’s margin really beyond the number of provisional votes?

(Update: CNN says no. The Kerry campaign says no. The current raw-vote margin for Bush is only 100,000, with 300,000 provisional ballots out. Could they break 2-1 for Kerry? Sure they could. I’m taking back the concession previously entered below.)

Tradesports now 95% for Bush. Reportedly, Carville just said it was over. ABC has just backed off calling Ohio for Bush. The AP and CBS are still being stubborn. I’m going to bed.

And no, I’m not going to be a good sport about it. Note that if Ohio is decisive, as it seems likely to be, and if Bush wins it, as also seems likely, and if the margin is small enough to be accounted for by blacks who didn’t get to vote in Cleveland due to the Republican challenge effort (which of course we can’t know now), this will be the second election in a row handed to the Republican candidate by Republican-appointed judges oveerruling the judges who actually considered the facts. Filibuster, anyone?

Note further that with the Republicans holding both chambers and having intimidated that part of the press they haven’t bought, there’s no one around to investigate. All complaints will be dismissed with the catchphrase “Sore loser.”

10:30 Just to cap a rotten evening, Measure A in Los Angeles is falling short of the 2/3 vote it needed, so in return for saving seven cents on a $15 CD the people of Los Angeles will continue to have an extraordinarily and unnecessarily high crime rate.

10:05 Apparently, despite the untimely (on the late side) death of Strom Thurmond, America’s demented seniors will continue to have representation in the Senate. Jim Bunning, who apparently is in advanced condition of Brezhnevism, won by a whisker. That’s a case where a little bit more money would have made the difference; but by the time it was clear that Mongiardo had a shot most of the Democratic money was already spoken for. Too bad.

9:50 AP says that the Republicans picked up four of the gerrymandered seats in Texas, and will probably gain about

9:49 The three-strikes softening proposition seems to be winning, which makes me happy, and so is the stem-cell proposition, which makes me happy even though it’s mostly a boondoggle, but at least two of the other big treasury raids are passing, as is the “tort reform” bill. Mandated employer health insurance is losing, so Wal-Mart can keep on shifting its costs to everybody else. (Details here.) Madison was right: representative government is better than government by plebiscite.

9:48 Yahoo gives Minnesota to Kerry, which figured.

ABC calls Vitter the winner in Louisiana, locking up the Senate for the GOP. One reader says that he’s seen analysis showing that the gay-bashing amendments made the difference in a number of close Senate races, which could make Bush even more subservient to the Christian Right. Chief Justice Rehnquist’s precarious health could bring up that issue right away.

9:40 Fox has called Ohio for Bush (and New Hampshire for Kerry).

9:35 The bad new is that the good news wasn’t true: the Chris Shays election is apparently still too close to call.

9:00 Josh Marshall reports that the youth vote just didn’t show up. I’m surprised. So, no doubt, is the management of the Kerry campaign.

Josh also reports, without giving details, on a Republican lawsuit having held up voting in the Cleveland precincts held open late. Note that none of the networks is covering any of this: no actual reporting, just talking heads.

8:44 ABC calls Florida for Bush, apparently having previously checked with the Kerry camp to see if they had objections to offer. It’s mostly down to Ohio. If Kerry loses Ohio, he’s mathematically eliminated. If he wins Ohio, he’s better than even money.

8:41 California Prop. 71, allocating money for stem cell research, has passed. It was an ugly piece of work, and I voted for it.

8:40 Chris Shays lost, in a race that his opponent made a referendum on Tom DeLay. (There’s a hint to other Northern Democrats.) Martin Frost also lost.

8:30 ABC calls the NC Senate race for the Republican. To take back the Senate the Democrats would now have to win all eleven outstanding races. Ain’t gonna happen.

8:20 CBS calls Colorado for Bush. If that’s right, and if Kerry loses Florida and Ohio and wins everything else, he’s only at 266.

8:12 ABC calls Arizona for Bush. NBC and MSNBC were already on that.

8:05 Lockhart says a local TV station has called Iowa for Kerry. Corrected: that was an exit poll result. Lockhart says Kerry is overperforming projections in the southern part of the state, and predicts victory in Florida. I didn’t hear confidence in his voice.

CBS has called Colorado for Bush.

8pm Pacific: Pennsylvania called for Kerry.

Mehlman says Bush is doing better than 2004 in Republican strongholds, swing areas, and some Democratic areas in Florida. If so, then let’s hope the Kerry camp’s claims that they will carry a 90,000 vote margin out of Miami-Dade, up from a margin of 40,000 four years ago.

7:17 NBC calls Missouri for Bush.

7:07 Tradesports has Daschle at only 15% to win. Damn!

Arkansas called for Bush. A disappointment, but not a surprise.

7:05 NBC still hasn’t called New Hampshire. Brokaw says with some surprise that Missouri is still too close to call, which can’t make Bush happy.

6:31 Steve Teles reports that Mongiardo is running ahead in Kentucky, but CBS says it’s even with 90% counted.

6:30 Pacific: CBS calls SC Senate seat for DeMint. not looking good for taking the Senate now: we really need to run the table.

6:15 400,000 provisional ballots cast in Ohio. Oh, no!

Bush is running 12 points behind Voinovich in the precints counted so far: Voinovich 65%, Bush 53%. Does any reader know how big the Voinovich win was supposed to be? I glanced at some polls and he appeared to be getting about 60%; if Voinovich actually gets 60% and Bush runs 12% behind, that’s good news for Kerry.

Media Matters summarizes network projections.

5:45 The Bush camp claims that actual precinct results are running ahead of the exit poll results, and that Bush is running ahead of his 2000 performance in the 1-4 Corridor in Florida. Were the exit polls wrong, or did those no-audit-trail electronic machines turn out to be as vulnerable as we feared?

5:45 Donkey Rising reports some last-minute Harris polling suggesting that the undecideds were breaking to Kerry. I guess we’ll know soon.

5:40 Another lunatic joins the Senate as Tom Coburn wins Oklahoma.

5:33 A reader reports that the SC and Kentucky senate races are still too close to call.

5:30 The Carolinas and Virginia now called for Bush.

5:25 A favorable omen, maybe: Ohio raw results have Bush ahead 55-45 with under 100,000 counted. But the anti-gay Measure 1, where the vote was expected to be tight, is running ahead in those same precincts 64-36. So if Measure 1 is a tight vote, and Bush is running nine points behind Measure 1 … well, the answer is left as an exercise for the reader.

5:15 Pacific

New Jersey called for Kerry, North Carolina and Tennessee for Bush. Those all started out as supposed battlegronds, but none is a surprise.

New exit poll numbers from Slate, via Atrios, as of just before 5 my time. Note that PA, OH, and FLA all tightened toward the end. Bushites apparently claim they got 2/3 of the 300,000 absentee ballots cast in Florida, and are telling people to disregard exit polling results. Don’t I recall reading that Gallup showed Kerry ahead among early voters?

        NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI

Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51

Bush  50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46

5:00 Pacific: West Virginia called for Bush. No real surprise, but it had been one of the battlegrounds. An early call isn’t a good omen. Maine for Kerry, as expected.

I’m going to be running a parallel entry on dirty tricks.

4:01 Pacific: CBS calls New Hampshire for Kerry as soon as the polls close, suggesting it wasn’t close.

Bushites are complaining about the sex ratio in the exit polls.

Turnout heavy across the country.

At 3:50 Pacific time, Tradesports has Kerry 70% to win, up 23 from this morning.

Zogby’s final call this morning had Bush ahead 0.3% in the popular vote but Kerry winning the Electoral College 311-213 (winning the Gore states plus Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, with Colorado and Nevada too close to call. Zogby calls Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania “trending Kerry.” He can lose any one of them, or both Ohio and Pennsylvania and stll be President. If he lost Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida, but held the rest of what Zogby gives him, he’d have to take Colorado to win.

Tradesports is presumably reacting to these early number from VNS:

        AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH

Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57

Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com