Liveblogging the Midterms, Part III

Well, Ollie, ain’t that a revoltin’ devlopment!

I’ll raise my hand now and admit that I was expecting the Democrats to outperform their polling. Apparently, no such luck. Looks as if racism was a good strategy for the GOP.

Donnelly is losing Indiana; both Florida races are too close to call; no surprising House pickups so far; a couple of promising candidates have lost. And if we had to win one possibly marginal Senate seat, did it have to be that crook Menendez?

538 now projects only a 60% chance that the Democrats will take the House, with an expected gain of 25 seats, and expects a net gain of two Senate seats for Republicans.

8:49: HAP–I suppose it’s a good thing that Menendez was reelected in NJ. A real embarrassment. I know it’s a good thing that Florida has voted to restore the voting rights of more than 1 million former felons.

Less than 100,000 vote margin in Fla gov race. Republicans well-positioned to win both Florida races, as Mike Grunwald warned months ago.

O’Rourke doing well in early voting, but it’s hard to know.

8:54. Republicans picked up Indiana Senate seat.

Democrats seem to be under-performing overall polling numbers. Not a great night so far.

8:58 MSNBC projecting that Democrats will 224+/-8, with 65% chance of winning majority.

8:59: Manchin held on….

9pm: Cruz has slight lead, but too early to call. Abbott held on in governor.
Wis governorship too close. Tammy Baldwin reelected.

9:04 Marsha Blackburn won in Tennessee. Gillum has a big hill to climb in Florida.

538 gives Democrats 56% chance of taking House. Looks like MS will go to a special election.

As depressing as tonight is, Democrats now at 57% probability of taking the House.

Striking that Democrats who ran as Democrats were sometimes disappointed. Democrats who ran as Republicans were also sometimes disappointed. McCaskill voted against Kavanaugh but also expressed anti-immigrant sentiment.

[We are adjourning to the top of the hour.]

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact:

2 thoughts on “Liveblogging the Midterms, Part III”

  1. If the Republicans have one more House member than the Democrats, then they can continue to refuse to investigate Trump’s crimes, but if the Democrats have one more House member than the Republicans, then they can go ahead and investigate all they want. Is that not insane? Shouldn’t the minority party be able to investigate the executive branch? These are not rhetorical questions. Is there any justification for this policy?

  2. I am extremely disappointed that Bredesen lost in TN. Leaving political positions aside, this was a race between a moron – Blackburn – and an intelligent, moderate, individual – Bredesen, whose resume includes a hugely successful business career, two terms as mayor of Nashville, and two terms as governor of TN, where, in both offices, he was successful and sensible.

    The notion that anyone would rather have Blackburn in the Senate is incredibly disheartening to this former Tennessean. I expected Bredesen to win in a walk.

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