7:45 So far, so good. FiveThirty Eight started the night predicting that the Democrats would lose a Senate seat and pick up 35 House seats. That’s now a break-even in the Senate and +45 in the House.
Gillum and Nelson seem to be running about even with each other in Florida, about three points ahead of their opponents with more than half the vote in.
7:58 Now the 528 predictions are back down to R+1 in the Senate and D+41 in the House. Donnelly isn’t looking good in Indiana; he was even-money on PredictIt earlier in the day, but he’s now 4-to-1 against. Apparently the rural counties are coming in hard for his opponent.
First pick-up call of the night: Wexton over Comstock in VA-10. That was expected.
8:24 Doesn’t look good for Gillum right now. Wow. Florida looks like a nail-biter.
CNN continues to over-interpret early results without telling us where early votes are coming from.
Charlie Baker wins in Mass reminder that socially-moderate Republicans could be very competitive in blue states, if GOP primary electorates would nominate mainstream candidates
Wolf Blitzer yells a lot. If he were on Twitter, he would be all-caps. These early results would be so much more informative if they were embedded in some sort of predictive-analytic model based on prior state patterns.
8:25 No surprise: Pritzker and Hogan win governorships.
8:26 James Carville says this will not be a Democratic wave election. Seems a little dour.
Starting a new post now.