Hope?

Polling Report [*] has three new Presidential polls up, all done this week, all showing Bush slipping badly.

Zogby shows 52% saying it’s time for someone new as President, with only 40% saying that Bush deserves re-election. That twelve-point net negative is up from three in mid-August and one in mid-July; up to that point, Bush had been in positive territory.

Similarly, 41% told Time/CNN that they would “definitely” vote against Bush, while only 29% were “definitely” for him. He still beats all of the Democrats in trial heats, but now by margins of only 3 (vs. Hillary) to 11 (vs. Gephardt). Lieberman and Kerry have gone from down 15-16 points in December to down 5-6 now.

Ipsos-Reid/Cook still has Bush in positive territory, 38-36, but the downtrend is the same: his +2 was +8 two weeks ago and +12 two weeks before that.

CBS News had Bush down 4 (33% “probably vote Bush” vs. 37% “probably vote Democratic”) a week ago.

Tradesports still quotes Bush’s re-election at 65 cents bid, 66 cents offered. I’m not ready to bet on a Democrat yet, but those are starting to look like tempting odds.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com