ABC News has a new poll, among those who say they’re “certain” to vote, showing Schwarzenegger with a comfortable lead, 45-29. [*] The Iowa market is taking the new numbers seriously; Schwarzenegger is now favored over Bustamante, though the vote-share market shows them about even.
Update Mickey Kaus points out that the poll in question is a “robo-poll,” which of course would naturally favor the Terminator. He also reads between the lines that ABC’s own director of polling is backing away from the result. Perhaps due to Kaus’s comment, IEM has now gone back to even money.
Footnote Mickey has also been hinting recently that the LA Times was sitting on some sort of Arnold-related dirt. Presumably that would be distrinct from the Oui interview [*], which Mickey refers to as the “Schwarzengangbanger issue,” or the Gigi Goyette business [*], which is actually pretty disgusting if true, as Goyette now says it is. (That affair reportedly started when Goyette was 16, which is two years below the statutory age in California, and when Schwarzenegger was already married.) My bet is that all of this stays below the radar screen.