Obama has suddenly jumped 10 points on the betting markets. No idea what’s up.
On the betting markets, Obama has jumped 10 points in the past twelve hours, up to 47%. Either the bettors have suddenly decided to pay attention to all the good news since the Ted Kennedy endorsement, or somebody knows something that hasn’t hit the ticker yet.
Update Rasmussen daily tracker out; goes from Clinton +11 to Clinton +6 (46-40). That suggests Sunday night must have been about even.
Second update A-ha! The CNN national poll, in the field Fri-Sun, has Obama +3, 49-46. I think this is the first time Obama has ever led in a national poll. Averaging the 5 recent national polls, it’s Clinton +2 (45-43). But that includes Pew’s Clinton +8, with its implausibly narrow margin for Obama among black voters.
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman