From Charlie Cook’s mouth to God’s ear

Bush’s favorable/unfavorable numbers look deadly.

If Bush’s numbers don’t bounce back, he will not get re-elected. That is clear.

With Iraq much more likely to either remain the same or get worse than to improve significantly, and with an improving economy going largely ignored (indeed, the president’s approval rating on the economy has gone down, not up), a souring of the electorate is taking place that must be reversed before Bush can firm up his approval numbers.

The most striking thing I see in the poll’s is the rising number of people who report unfavorable impressions of Bush personally. That’s a number less volatile than job performance. Right now, CBS has Bush at 36 favorable, 47 unfavorable. Kerry’s at 32-32 in the same poll.

Note to Mickey Kaus: Cook reports “euphoria” among Democrats, “anxiety, though not quite panic,” among Republicans.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: