Fearless prognostication Dep’t

I’m calling the Wisconsin Supreme Court race for Kloppenberg, by about 800 votes out of almost 1.5 million cast.

My ignorance of Wisconsin politics allows me to do what none of the experts has yet done: project Joanne Kloppenberg the hair’s-breadth winner over David Prosser in Wisconsin.

Here’s the arithmetic:

Prosser is holding a lead of just under 1700 votes, with 97 of 3,630 wards still out.

If the remaining wards in each county come in with as many votes each, and in the same proportions, as the wards already counted in the same counties, then Prosser will pick up 100 votes in Calumet, 100 Votes in Jefferson, 100 votes in Manitowoc, 800 votes in Marathon*, and 100 votes in Oconto, bringing his lead to 2900.

But Kloppenberg will pick up 500 in Ashland, 300 in Dane, 1600 in Eau Claire, 800 in Milwaukee, and 400 in Sauk, for a gain of 3600 and a 700-vote margin out of just under a million and a half cast.

Now, if you have any confidence in those numbers, can I interest you in a nice one-owner used bridge?

Still, even if Prosser hangs on, this wasn’t a good night for the plutocrats. He’s the incumbent, and beat Kloppenberg by 30 points in the preliminary. The swing toward Kloppenberg was a swing against Walker. If I held one of those eight Senate seats, I’d be sweating.

UPDATE 10:30 Pacific Just got word from an actual expert that the missing wards in Marathon County are from the relatively liberal city of Wausau. To that extent, the calculation above is slightly conservative.

SECOND UPDATE 11:00 Pacific Rest of Marathon now in, along with the rest of Calumet and Manitowoc, and Prosser’s lead grew only to 1900, a gain of 200 for him instead of the 1000 I had figured for those three counties. No more votes counted from any of the places Kloppenberg figured to pick up.

THIRD UPDATE 11:30 Eau Claire now in, and Kloppenberg is now within 600 votes, a pick-up of 1300, a little less than I’d guessed. Still waiting for 6 wards in Ashland (K+400), two in Dunn (K +100) one in Dane (K +300), 12 in Milwaukee (K+800), 8 in Sauk (K+300), four random wards that shouldn’t add up to much one way or the other, and one ward in Jefferson (P+100). New guesstimate: Kloppenberg by 1200.

FOURTH UPDATE Midnight Dunn County now all in, according to the county, though AP still has two wards out. Kloppenberg picks up 225 from those two wards, better than expected. On the other hand, Dane County reports that all wards are in, though the AP shows one still out, for the same vote totals. So subtract 300 from the Kloppenberg projection, which falls to a 1000-vote win.

BONUS The Republican running to replace Walker as Milwaukee County Executive got his head handed to him, picking up less than 40% of the vote.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

6 thoughts on “Fearless prognostication Dep’t”

  1. The fact that the race is this close, considering all that’s happened in Wisconsin lately, is dispiriting.

  2. What Quiddity said @ 06:38 – the bottom line to this whole exercise is exactly WHO is going to be putting on that black robe and taking their seat for the next term of the WI SC.
    Everything else – everything – is irrelevant.

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