Obama’s RV lead hasn’t changed in the new CNN poll, but he’s doing much better among LVs. That means that more Dems are planning to vote and more Reeps to stay home.

CNN reports Obama now up by 6. Nice, but not surprising given the other stuff we’ve seen. What’s especially nice is that the conventions seems to have reversed the “enthusiasm gap,” which now favors the Democrats. In fact, to my non-professional eye, it seems as if all the movement has been in enthusiasm rather than persuasion; Obama’s lead among registered voters barely budged, while his lead among likely voters jumped.  The two now virtually coincide. [UPDATE: Romney voters split evenly between those who say they’re voting for Romney and those who say they’re voting against Obama. Obama voters report they’re voting for Obama rather than against Romney by 3:1. Does anyone know whether this is typical of re-election campaigns; e.g., what were the comparable Bush-Kerry numbers in 2004, or Clinton-Dole numbers in 1996?]

That could matter a lot for down-ballot races; Republicans staying home won’t vote for Senate and House candidates. It’s still barely possible that the Dems could take back the House and hold the Senate. I’m with Jon; good time to write a check to your favorite candidate or committee in the races where money is still likely to be crucial.


Footnote If the best happens, we’ll see whether the holders of marginal seats repeat the suicidal move of trying to preseve themselves at the expense of the party, or whether they learn Franklin’s lesson about hanging together.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

2 thoughts on “Enthusiasm”

  1. No idea what the history was, but I’ll just note that in ’04 I would definitely have answered that question “vote against.” I actually rather liked Kerry, and came to really respect him by the end of the campaign, but without a shadow of doubt my priority was ousting W.

    I don’t know at all, but I suspect, that a large margin of the opposition vote is “vote against” almost all the time. I just can’t envision a race where there were many people whose attitude was “the President is ok, I guess, but I really like this new guy!”

  2. One always has to account for the “opposed to the N-word” voters in the South and Appalachia. From listening to those opposed to Obama in Oklahoma, that is at least 50% of the Romney vote.

    And they are not shy about the N-word. Open racism is on the rise and openly approved here, in Texas and Arkansas [not just tolerated] and I assume in much of the South. The bigots open up the moment they think that no blacks are around. Since I am white, middle aged and not a “suit” I am often assumed to be a fellow bigot.

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