Do not despair

Betting markets predict Dem pickups of 30-35 in the House; the Senate is hard but doable: we’d need to hold Maryland and take Virginia, Missouri, and Montana, with everything but Missouri looking better than even money.

According to the betting markets, the Dems are likely to pick up between 30 and 35 House seats. (Thirty or more is trading at 80 cents, 35 or more at 35 cents.)

The Senate, which was looking terrible an hour ago, now looks possible; GOP control is trading between 50 and 53 cents on Tradesports. But that overall number isn’t really consistent with the race-by-race numbers, or with the Iowa market.

According to Tradesports:

Tennessee Senate and Arizona Senate are gone, which needs we’d need to hold Maryland and take Virginia, Missouri, and Montana.

Maryland Senate looks 90+% likely.

Virginia Senate looks 80% likely.

Missouri Senate looks like about a 45% shot.

Montana Senate is about 70%.

.9 x . 8 x .45 x .7 is about 22%, which is consistent with the Iowa price of 76 cents on a Republican hold. At this point the probabilities in the various races should be just about uncorrelated, unless you figure that the military write-in vote will tred the same way in Missouri as it does in Virginia. But the Tradesports Senate control contract is more actively traded, with a narrower spread, than the Iowa Senate control contact or any of the component races.

So we’re where we’ve been for a month or so: it’s not impossible, but we need to run the damned table.

Update Va. now at 85%, and GOP Senate control is now at 44 cents on Tradesports; the spreads in the Iowa markets are so large as to be meaningless. Hard to believe, but this could actually happen.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact:

One thought on “Do not despair”

  1. Tradesports has 11 bid, 12 offer against a dollar for the GOP to hold the senate. I'm sorry to be crass but I'm sporting tremendous wood, politically speaking.

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