Clark passing Kerry in NH?

A New Hampshire TV station reports that a poll conducted for another campaign shows that Clark has passed Kerry and is now in second place in New Hampshire. The ARG tracking poll doesn’t agree, showing Kerry up by 2.

[Update Tuesday’s ARG numbers have Clark up two, tied with Kerry. That’s a three-day moving average, suggesting a fairly large jump for Clark on the most recent day of polling.]

If Clark were to move clearly ahead of Kerry, he might become a magnet for some otherwise uncommitted non-Dean voters.

Update: Josh Marshall agrees, speculating on a possible “tipping point.” The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup numbers also seem encouraging for Clark; he has closed to within four points of Dean among Democrats nationally, and has the only net favorable rating among the Democratic candidates.

By the way, doesn’t that last fact make it obvious what a horrible idea these nine-man’s-Morris debates have turned out to be?

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com