Charlie Cook has good news for Obama fans

He says back-to-back losses in Iowa and New Hampshire would knock HRC out of the race. Somehow, I doubt it.

From the latest “Off To the Races“:

If Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is going to be able to stop Clinton, he has to begin with a victory in Iowa. Otherwise, her strong standing in states that followshould propel her through the balance of the schedule.

For Clinton, it would take losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire five days later to earn her a one-way ticket back home.

It’s hard to imagine how she would survive back-to-back losses in states where she once led, although her lead in Iowa has never been particularly wide.Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire for Obama would make him virtually unstoppable.

But it seems to me a better-than-even bet that Obama does win Iowa, and a win in Iowa would have to provide only a little “bump” in New Hampshire to push him over the top there. So if Cook is right, Obama ‘s odds are a lot shorter than the betting markets are offering.

Is Cook right, though? Candidates mostly get “sent to the showers” by running out of money. That’s not a factor for Clinton; she can get through “SuperTuesday” with money already in hand.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: